Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 10.88x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 10.87x, against a typical 6.92x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $20,055.09 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 4.47% lower, and an hour later 5.07% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 5.75% of its price, against 2.22% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 13 July 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 1.3% for June 2022, against 0.9% in May 2022. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 14 days before the Federal Reserve's 27 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 10.88x compares with 4.75x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an exceptional reaction to the June CPI release. Its volatility ratio reached 10.88x against the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI prints since 2021, while volume expanded to 10.87x versus the usual 6.92x. The move exceeded the elevated median of 4.75x that Clometrix has observed for CPI releases falling inside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision.
The volatility expansion coincided with core CPI and core inflation readings released at the same instant, amplifying the joint impact on price action. Bitcoin traded at $20,055.09 at the moment of release and fell 4.47 percent within fifteen minutes and 5.07 percent within the hour. Its hourly range widened to 5.75 percent from 2.22 percent in the preceding hour.
Traders reviewing the record will note that pre-Fed timing alone does not explain the full magnitude observed here. The 10.88x volatility ratio surpassed the 4.75x median for comparable releases, indicating that the surprise component or the clustering of inflation data added measurable force. Future CPI prints scheduled near policy meetings may therefore warrant closer attention to both the deviation from consensus and the precise interval before the next Federal Reserve announcement.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
19,345.57Close
20,176.0624h Change
830.49 (4.12%)24h High
20,430.7624h Low
18,910.9424h Volume
210,534 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
13th July, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 19893.35 | 20058.93 | 19889.78 | 20055.09 | 0.81% | 0.84% | 436 BTC |
| During | 20055.09 | 20064.23 | 19498.40 | 19616.72 | -2.23% | 2.82% | 2,289 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19869.86 | 20128.39 | 19828.00 | 20055.09 | 0.92% | 1.49% | 2,845 BTC |
| During | 20055.09 | 20064.23 | 19337.00 | 19410.17 | -3.32% | 3.62% | 6,106 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19743.68 | 20128.39 | 19740.28 | 20055.09 | 1.55% | 1.93% | 3,969 BTC |
| During | 20055.09 | 20064.23 | 19049.95 | 19067.97 | -5.18% | 5.06% | 10,573 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19751.55 | 20128.39 | 19682.86 | 20055.09 | 1.51% | 2.21% | 5,100 BTC |
| During | 20055.09 | 20064.23 | 18910.94 | 19157.86 | -4.68% | 5.75% | 16,296 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19845.33 | 20128.39 | 19682.86 | 20055.09 | 1.05% | 2.21% | 6,865 BTC |
| During | 20055.09 | 20064.23 | 18910.94 | 19165.01 | -4.64% | 5.75% | 22,659 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 19803.75 | 20128.39 | 19682.86 | 20055.09 | 1.25% | 2.21% | 9,879 BTC |
| During | 20055.09 | 20064.23 | 18910.94 | 19039.03 | -5.34% | 5.75% | 29,951 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19744.66 | 20128.39 | 19682.86 | 20055.09 | 1.55% | 2.21% | 14,591 BTC |
| During | 20055.09 | 20064.23 | 18910.94 | 19250.74 | -4.18% | 5.75% | 49,589 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19795.24 | 20128.39 | 19682.86 | 20055.09 | 1.30% | 2.21% | 27,315 BTC |
| During | 20055.09 | 20064.23 | 18910.94 | 19372.10 | -3.53% | 5.75% | 80,087 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19482.21 | 20128.39 | 19471.44 | 20055.09 | 2.86% | 3.26% | 41,448 BTC |
| During | 20055.09 | 20064.23 | 18910.94 | 19777.06 | -1.41% | 5.75% | 104,473 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19345.57 | 19875.00 | 19330.00 | 19795.24 | 2.27% | 2.74% | 38,394 BTC |
| During | 19795.24 | 20128.39 | 18910.94 | 19372.10 | -2.18% | 6.05% | 107,403 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19345.57 | 20128.39 | 19330.00 | 20055.09 | 3.54% | 3.97% | 65,710 BTC |
| During | 20055.09 | 20430.76 | 18910.94 | 20176.06 | 0.60% | 7.44% | 144,825 BTC |
