Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 February 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2% for January 2021, against 0.4% in December 2020. Consumer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.26x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.26x, against a typical 6.92x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $45,475.74 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.62% higher, and an hour later 0.23% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.74% of its price, against 3.74% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.26x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the January 2021 CPI release. Volatility reached only 1.26x normal levels in the quarter hour after the print, far below the 4.28x median recorded across CPI events since 2021. Volume matched that subdued reading at 1.26x against a typical 6.92x. The market barely registered the data as a market-moving event.
The release fell outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision. CPI prints inside that window have produced a median volatility ratio of 4.75x, compared with 3.99x at other times. Bitcoin's 1.26x outcome sat well below even the lower of those benchmarks.
Price movement stayed contained. Bitcoin stood at $45,475.74 at the moment of release, rose 0.62 percent within fifteen minutes, and closed the hour 0.23 percent lower. Its high-to-low range in that hour measured 1.74 percent of spot, narrower than the 3.74 percent range seen in the preceding hour.
Traders reviewing future CPI releases may therefore focus first on proximity to scheduled policy meetings, since that timing has shown a clearer link to Bitcoin volatility than the headline surprise itself.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
46,182.45Close
44,404.2924h Change
-1778.16 (-4.00%)24h High
47,310.0024h Low
43,727.0024h Volume
97,847 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
10th February, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 45512.69 | 45517.25 | 45325.00 | 45475.75 | -0.08% | 0.42% | 156 BTC |
| During | 45475.74 | 45491.34 | 45389.46 | 45483.58 | 0.02% | 0.22% | 75 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 45619.92 | 45703.74 | 45325.00 | 45475.75 | -0.32% | 0.83% | 433 BTC |
| During | 45475.74 | 45721.15 | 45389.46 | 45592.85 | 0.26% | 0.73% | 381 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 45536.90 | 45763.60 | 45325.00 | 45475.75 | -0.13% | 0.96% | 787 BTC |
| During | 45475.74 | 45774.59 | 45389.46 | 45749.97 | 0.60% | 0.84% | 702 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 45800.00 | 45800.01 | 45325.00 | 45475.75 | -0.71% | 1.04% | 1,266 BTC |
| During | 45475.74 | 45826.01 | 45389.46 | 45759.44 | 0.62% | 0.95% | 1,049 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 45655.13 | 45969.28 | 45314.32 | 45475.75 | -0.39% | 1.42% | 3,432 BTC |
| During | 45475.74 | 45876.00 | 45389.46 | 45626.32 | 0.33% | 1.06% | 1,769 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 46136.61 | 46200.00 | 44500.00 | 45475.75 | -1.45% | 3.68% | 10,499 BTC |
| During | 45475.74 | 45988.20 | 45195.00 | 45372.02 | -0.23% | 1.72% | 4,262 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 46481.39 | 46593.34 | 44500.00 | 45475.75 | -2.21% | 4.49% | 13,962 BTC |
| During | 45475.74 | 45988.20 | 44337.17 | 44450.00 | -2.31% | 3.59% | 12,048 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 46823.53 | 47310.00 | 44500.00 | 45475.75 | -2.96% | 5.94% | 21,888 BTC |
| During | 45475.74 | 45988.20 | 43727.00 | 44790.82 | -1.53% | 4.92% | 24,686 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 46565.07 | 47310.00 | 44500.00 | 45475.75 | -2.40% | 5.94% | 28,888 BTC |
| During | 45475.74 | 45988.20 | 43727.00 | 44683.73 | -1.77% | 4.92% | 32,173 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 46182.45 | 46944.07 | 45589.98 | 46823.53 | 1.37% | 2.88% | 26,641 BTC |
| During | 46823.53 | 47310.00 | 43727.00 | 44790.82 | -4.54% | 7.57% | 46,574 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 46182.45 | 47310.00 | 44500.00 | 45475.75 | -1.55% | 5.94% | 48,529 BTC |
| During | 45475.74 | 45988.20 | 43727.00 | 44404.29 | -2.41% | 4.92% | 49,318 BTC |
