Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 December 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.9% for November 2021, against 1.0% in October 2021. Consumer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $48,903.48 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.71% higher, and an hour later 1.17% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.53% of its price, against 0.73% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.52x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.56x, against a typical 6.92x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 15 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 4.52x compares with 4.75x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the November CPI release. The price stood at $48,903.48 at publication and rose 1.71 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.17 percent after one hour, expanding the hourly high-to-low range to 2.53 percent from 0.73 percent beforehand. The volatility ratio of 4.52 times matched the 4.28 times median observed across seventy CPI releases since 2021, while volume expanded 6.56 times against the typical 6.92 times.
The print arrived five days before the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting, a window that has produced a higher median volatility ratio of 4.75 times across twenty-eight prior instances compared with 3.99 times for releases further from decisions. The 4.52 times outcome therefore sat squarely in line with the timing effect already embedded in the record. Core CPI and core inflation figures were published simultaneously, so the measured response reflects the joint information set.
Traders observing future CPI releases can take from this instance that proximity to a Federal Reserve decision tends to lift volatility ratios without altering the event's fundamental character. The record shows coincidence between timing and magnitude rather than a causal link, and each release must still be assessed on its own surprise relative to the established distribution.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
48,484.12Close
48,035.0724h Change
-449.05 (-0.93%)24h High
50,125.0024h Low
46,751.0024h Volume
45,517 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
10th December, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 48917.62 | 48941.10 | 48889.23 | 48903.48 | -0.03% | 0.11% | 19 BTC |
| During | 48903.48 | 49419.00 | 48889.24 | 49192.67 | 0.59% | 1.07% | 310 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 48945.92 | 48967.92 | 48851.86 | 48903.48 | -0.09% | 0.24% | 93 BTC |
| During | 48903.48 | 49500.00 | 48889.24 | 49299.20 | 0.80% | 1.23% | 732 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 48966.86 | 49000.00 | 48850.00 | 48903.48 | -0.13% | 0.31% | 213 BTC |
| During | 48903.48 | 50125.00 | 48889.24 | 49876.37 | 1.95% | 2.47% | 2,131 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 49118.61 | 49125.03 | 48850.00 | 48903.48 | -0.44% | 0.56% | 363 BTC |
| During | 48903.48 | 50125.00 | 48889.24 | 49738.94 | 1.68% | 2.47% | 2,339 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 49092.20 | 49198.15 | 48850.00 | 48903.48 | -0.39% | 0.71% | 693 BTC |
| During | 48903.48 | 50125.00 | 48889.24 | 49610.99 | 1.43% | 2.47% | 2,968 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 48917.43 | 49198.15 | 48839.22 | 48903.48 | -0.03% | 0.73% | 1,363 BTC |
| During | 48903.48 | 50125.00 | 48889.24 | 49477.69 | 1.16% | 2.47% | 3,846 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 48414.03 | 49233.49 | 48384.87 | 48903.48 | 1.00% | 1.72% | 3,939 BTC |
| During | 48903.48 | 50125.00 | 47900.74 | 48376.91 | -1.09% | 4.44% | 8,572 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 47919.56 | 49233.49 | 47869.80 | 48903.48 | 2.01% | 2.77% | 6,566 BTC |
| During | 48903.48 | 50125.00 | 47251.06 | 47409.79 | -3.15% | 5.73% | 14,584 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 47953.44 | 49233.49 | 47550.00 | 48903.48 | 1.94% | 3.42% | 9,444 BTC |
| During | 48903.48 | 50125.00 | 47251.06 | 47986.12 | -1.91% | 5.73% | 18,095 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 48484.12 | 48780.00 | 47550.00 | 47919.56 | -1.18% | 2.52% | 9,930 BTC |
| During | 47919.56 | 50125.00 | 47251.06 | 47409.79 | -1.08% | 5.73% | 21,150 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 48484.12 | 49233.49 | 47550.00 | 48903.48 | 0.86% | 3.42% | 16,496 BTC |
| During | 48903.48 | 50125.00 | 46751.00 | 48035.07 | -1.81% | 6.73% | 29,022 BTC |
