Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 6.21x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.48x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $66,382.15 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.83% higher, and an hour later 2.93% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.69% of its price, against 0.7% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 November 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 1.0% for October 2021, against 0.5% in September 2021. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 6.21x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the November 2021 CPI release, posting a volatility ratio of 6.21x in the quarter hour after the print against the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI events since 2021. Volume expanded 6.48x, close to the typical 6.92x benchmark. The price rose from $66,382.15 to a 1.83 percent gain within fifteen minutes and 2.93 percent after one hour, while the high-to-low range reached 4.69 percent of spot compared with 0.7 percent in the preceding hour.
The event fell 34 days before the Federal Reserve's December 2021 decision and therefore outside the two-week window ahead of policy meetings. Releases in that pre-decision window have produced a median volatility ratio of 4.75x since 2021, while those at other times averaged 3.99x. The 6.21x ratio observed here exceeded the latter benchmark, showing that the move surpassed what timing alone would indicate. Traders reviewing future CPI prints may therefore weigh the scale of the inflation surprise alongside proximity to Federal Reserve meetings when assessing potential volatility.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
67,168.51Close
64,464.2624h Change
-2704.25 (-4.19%)24h High
69,000.0024h Low
62,822.9024h Volume
67,531 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
10th November, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 66360.17 | 66389.98 | 66353.01 | 66382.14 | 0.03% | 0.06% | 22 BTC |
| During | 66382.15 | 66549.00 | 65888.00 | 66438.25 | 0.08% | 0.99% | 754 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 66444.53 | 66452.00 | 66353.01 | 66382.14 | -0.09% | 0.15% | 115 BTC |
| During | 66382.15 | 66951.33 | 65888.00 | 66874.49 | 0.74% | 1.59% | 1,364 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 66444.77 | 66523.80 | 66353.01 | 66382.14 | -0.09% | 0.26% | 218 BTC |
| During | 66382.15 | 67430.59 | 65888.00 | 67368.81 | 1.46% | 2.29% | 2,329 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 66473.71 | 66523.80 | 66353.01 | 66382.14 | -0.14% | 0.26% | 324 BTC |
| During | 66382.15 | 67699.99 | 65888.00 | 67598.78 | 1.80% | 2.68% | 2,828 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 66396.98 | 66523.80 | 66300.00 | 66382.14 | -0.02% | 0.34% | 610 BTC |
| During | 66382.15 | 68000.00 | 65888.00 | 67983.45 | 2.36% | 3.11% | 4,221 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 66599.99 | 66713.83 | 66250.00 | 66382.14 | -0.33% | 0.70% | 1,544 BTC |
| During | 66382.15 | 69000.00 | 65888.00 | 68329.35 | 2.85% | 4.51% | 8,203 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 66714.19 | 66961.32 | 66250.00 | 66382.14 | -0.50% | 1.06% | 3,115 BTC |
| During | 66382.15 | 69000.00 | 65888.00 | 68303.03 | 2.81% | 4.51% | 10,699 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 66688.32 | 67099.00 | 66250.00 | 66382.14 | -0.46% | 1.27% | 5,420 BTC |
| During | 66382.15 | 69000.00 | 65888.00 | 68557.61 | 3.17% | 4.51% | 15,803 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 66738.94 | 67099.00 | 66250.00 | 66382.14 | -0.54% | 1.27% | 7,790 BTC |
| During | 66382.15 | 69000.00 | 65888.00 | 67707.24 | 1.96% | 4.51% | 20,065 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 67168.51 | 67300.00 | 66233.00 | 66688.32 | -0.72% | 1.59% | 9,480 BTC |
| During | 66688.32 | 69000.00 | 65888.00 | 68557.61 | 2.73% | 4.51% | 21,223 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 67168.51 | 67300.00 | 66233.00 | 66382.14 | -1.18% | 1.59% | 14,900 BTC |
| During | 66382.15 | 69000.00 | 62822.90 | 64464.26 | -2.98% | 8.95% | 52,631 BTC |
