BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 13th October 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 13 October 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.5% for September 2021, against 0.3% in August 2021. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.21x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.71x, against a typical 6.92x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $55,076.47 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.28% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.71% of its price, against 1.01% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.21x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the September CPI release. The volatility ratio reached just 1.21x in the quarter hour after the 8:30 AM print, well below the 4.28x median recorded across CPI events since 2021. Volume actually contracted to 0.71x of a normal quarter hour that day, against a typical 6.92x expansion. Bitcoin traded at $55,076.47 on the release and fell 0.28 percent in the first fifteen minutes before returning to its opening level within the hour. The high-to-low range narrowed to 0.71 percent after the print from 1.01 percent beforehand.

The muted response aligns with the release timing. This CPI arrived twenty days ahead of the November Federal Open Market Committee decision and therefore outside the two-week window in which CPI prints have historically produced larger Bitcoin moves. Releases inside that window carry a median volatility ratio of 4.75x, compared with 3.99x for those further away. The 1.21x outcome here fell short of even the lower benchmark that its calendar position would have implied. Traders reviewing the record for future CPI dates can note that proximity to a policy meeting has coincided with elevated volatility more often than distance from one.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

56,226.64

57,316.60

24h Change

1089.96 (1.90%)

24h High

57,777.00

24h Low

54,167.19

24h Volume

55,390 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

13th October, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	55079.57	55107.25	55074.10	55076.46	-0.01%	0.06%	10 BTC
During	55076.47	55196.50	55064.80	55189.91	0.21%	0.24%	25 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	55113.69	55158.95	55041.66	55076.46	-0.07%	0.21%	83 BTC
During	55076.47	55217.01	55064.80	55124.24	0.09%	0.28%	92 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	55140.43	55158.95	54929.00	55076.46	-0.12%	0.42%	339 BTC
During	55076.47	55217.01	55064.80	55100.00	0.04%	0.28%	175 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	55180.00	55229.13	54929.00	55076.46	-0.19%	0.54%	541 BTC
During	55076.47	55217.01	54912.21	54920.00	-0.28%	0.55%	334 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	55210.80	55340.08	54929.00	55076.46	-0.24%	0.74%	1,193 BTC
During	55076.47	55217.01	54840.87	55056.50	-0.04%	0.68%	883 BTC

1 Hour
Before	54800.32	55340.08	54783.72	55076.46	0.50%	1.01%	2,294 BTC
During	55076.47	55230.29	54840.87	55082.85	0.01%	0.71%	1,654 BTC

2 Hours
Before	55005.86	55340.08	54400.10	55076.46	0.13%	1.70%	4,272 BTC
During	55076.47	55230.29	54521.74	55065.17	-0.02%	1.28%	3,989 BTC

4 Hours
Before	55168.73	55340.08	54167.19	55076.46	-0.17%	2.12%	8,504 BTC
During	55076.47	56440.75	54521.74	56306.43	2.18%	3.40%	10,301 BTC

6 Hours
Before	55519.95	55519.95	54167.19	55076.46	-0.81%	2.44%	14,707 BTC
During	55076.47	57242.00	54521.74	56991.83	3.36%	4.75%	16,950 BTC

8 Hours
Before	56226.64	56599.99	54457.00	55168.73	-1.92%	3.79%	17,867 BTC
During	55168.73	56440.75	54167.19	56306.43	2.02%	4.03%	18,805 BTC

12 Hours
Before	56226.64	56599.99	54167.19	55076.46	-2.09%	4.30%	26,372 BTC
During	55076.47	57777.00	54521.74	57316.60	3.91%	5.63%	29,018 BTC