BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 13th July 2022

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 10.88x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 10.87x, against a typical 6.92x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $20,055.09 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 4.47% lower, and an hour later 5.07% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 5.75% of its price, against 2.22% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 13 July 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 1.3% for June 2022, against 0.9% in May 2022. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 14 days before the Federal Reserve's 27 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 10.88x compares with 4.75x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered an exceptional reaction to the June CPI release. Its volatility ratio reached 10.88x against the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI prints since 2021, while volume expanded to 10.87x versus the usual 6.92x. The move exceeded the elevated median of 4.75x that Clometrix has observed for CPI releases falling inside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision.

The volatility expansion coincided with core CPI and core inflation readings released at the same instant, amplifying the joint impact on price action. Bitcoin traded at $20,055.09 at the moment of release and fell 4.47 percent within fifteen minutes and 5.07 percent within the hour. Its hourly range widened to 5.75 percent from 2.22 percent in the preceding hour.

Traders reviewing the record will note that pre-Fed timing alone does not explain the full magnitude observed here. The 10.88x volatility ratio surpassed the 4.75x median for comparable releases, indicating that the surprise component or the clustering of inflation data added measurable force. Future CPI prints scheduled near policy meetings may therefore warrant closer attention to both the deviation from consensus and the precise interval before the next Federal Reserve announcement.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

19,345.57

Close

20,176.06

24h Change

830.49 (4.12%)

24h High

20,430.76

24h Low

18,910.94

24h Volume

210,534 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

13th July, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time Open High Low Close Change Amplitude Volume
 
1 Minute
Before19893.3520058.9319889.7820055.090.81%0.84%436 BTC
During20055.0920064.2319498.4019616.72-2.23%2.82%2,289 BTC
 
5 Minutes
Before19869.8620128.3919828.0020055.090.92%1.49%2,845 BTC
During20055.0920064.2319337.0019410.17-3.32%3.62%6,106 BTC
 
10 Minutes
Before19743.6820128.3919740.2820055.091.55%1.93%3,969 BTC
During20055.0920064.2319049.9519067.97-5.18%5.06%10,573 BTC
 
15 Minutes
Before19751.5520128.3919682.8620055.091.51%2.21%5,100 BTC
During20055.0920064.2318910.9419157.86-4.68%5.75%16,296 BTC
 
30 Minutes
Before19845.3320128.3919682.8620055.091.05%2.21%6,865 BTC
During20055.0920064.2318910.9419165.01-4.64%5.75%22,659 BTC
 
1 Hour
Before19803.7520128.3919682.8620055.091.25%2.21%9,879 BTC
During20055.0920064.2318910.9419039.03-5.34%5.75%29,951 BTC
 
2 Hours
Before19744.6620128.3919682.8620055.091.55%2.21%14,591 BTC
During20055.0920064.2318910.9419250.74-4.18%5.75%49,589 BTC
 
4 Hours
Before19795.2420128.3919682.8620055.091.30%2.21%27,315 BTC
During20055.0920064.2318910.9419372.10-3.53%5.75%80,087 BTC
 
6 Hours
Before19482.2120128.3919471.4420055.092.86%3.26%41,448 BTC
During20055.0920064.2318910.9419777.06-1.41%5.75%104,473 BTC
 
8 Hours
Before19345.5719875.0019330.0019795.242.27%2.74%38,394 BTC
During19795.2420128.3918910.9419372.10-2.18%6.05%107,403 BTC
 
12 Hours
Before19345.5720128.3919330.0020055.093.54%3.97%65,710 BTC
During20055.0920430.7618910.9420176.060.60%7.44%144,825 BTC

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