How Bitcoin reacted to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures on 20 February 2026

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.93x, against 2.03x for a typical Core PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 17.68x, against a typical 2.52x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $67,202.01 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.86% lower, and an hour later 0.34% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.4% of its price, against 0.91% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 20 February 2026 at 8:30 AM EST. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for December 2025, against 0.2% in October 2025. Core prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Income and Outlays and Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Core PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.93x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 Core PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.03x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered an exceptional reaction to the 20 February 2026 Core PCE release. Volatility reached 4.93x the level of an ordinary quarter hour on the same day, more than double the 2.09x median recorded across 69 Core PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 17.68x its baseline, against a typical 2.55x. The move stood out even though the release fell outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, where the historical median volatility ratio has been 2.13x.

Price action was contained yet decisive. Bitcoin opened the interval at $67,202.01 and traded 0.86 percent lower within fifteen minutes. The hourly range widened to 1.4 percent after the print from 0.91 percent beforehand. The measured response reflects the simultaneous arrival of the GDP report, personal income and outlays, and the full PCE release.

Traders will note that Core PCE prints away from imminent policy meetings have produced a lower median volatility ratio of 1.81x. This instance exceeded that benchmark by a wide margin, indicating that the scale of the surprise and the clustering of companion data releases can override the usual effect of calendar distance from the Federal Reserve. Future releases of this event may therefore warrant attention whenever multiple related figures land together, regardless of proximity to the next rate decision.

What is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Every Core PCE release for Bitcoin