Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.49x, against 2.03x for a typical Core PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.03x, against a typical 2.52x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $93,836.85 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.75% higher, and an hour later 1.47% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.1% of its price, against 0.82% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 20 December 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.1% for November 2024, against 0.3% in October 2024. Core prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Core PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 18 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 3.49x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Core PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.03x.
What it means
Volume expanded to 4.03x against the typical 2.55x. The price rose from $93,836.85 to a 1.75 percent gain within fifteen minutes and remained 1.47 percent higher after one hour, while the hourly range widened to 2.1 percent from 0.82 percent beforehand.
Timing relative to Fed decisions
It fell two days after the 18 December Federal Reserve decision and 39 days before the next scheduled meeting. Releases in the two weeks before a policy decision have historically produced a 2.13x median volatility ratio for Bitcoin, yet this instance reached 3.49x against the 1.81x benchmark for non-window events. Traders watching the January 2025 Core PCE may note that even outside the immediate pre-decision window the event can still generate outsized price action when the surprise exceeds recent norms, though the record supplies no forward expectation.
How it compares
Across 69 Core PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 1.72 times the usual.
Thin line: Core PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 3.49x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 94888.00 | 93836.85 | 94789.44 | 1.00% | 1.11% | 0.20% | 343 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 95369.37 | 93836.85 | 95328.00 | 1.56% | 1.61% | 0.35% | 1,020 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 95539.31 | 93836.85 | 95216.01 | 1.45% | 1.78% | 0.49% | 1,584 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 95628.28 | 93836.85 | 95480.35 | 1.72% | 1.87% | 0.62% | 1,947 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 95803.57 | 93836.85 | 95204.00 | 1.44% | 2.05% | 0.74% | 3,024 BTC |
| 1 hour | 95803.57 | 93836.85 | 95218.75 | 1.45% | 2.05% | 0.82% | 4,308 BTC |
| 2 hours | 97143.00 | 93836.85 | 97065.35 | 3.33% | 3.40% | 2.17% | 8,101 BTC |
| 4 hours | 97700.00 | 93836.85 | 97275.73 | 3.54% | 3.95% | 3.62% | 13,673 BTC |
| 6 hours | 97727.27 | 93836.85 | 97584.33 | 3.84% | 3.98% | 6.11% | 16,223 BTC |
| 8 hours | 97700.00 | 92232.54 | 97275.73 | 2.16% | 5.60% | 3.28% | 33,469 BTC |
| 12 hours | 97816.44 | 93836.85 | 97478.43 | 3.74% | 4.07% | 6.11% | 23,197 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Core PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.49x | 2.03x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 3.29x | 1.77x | Strong |
| XRP | 3.20x | 1.81x | Strong |
| BNB | 3.12x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Solana | 3.74x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 3.80x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 3.64x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 4.30x | 1.90x | Exceptional |
| Chainlink | 3.11x | 1.62x | Strong |
| Sui | 5.96x | 1.53x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.59x | 1.69x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 2.43x | 1.51x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 3.72x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 3.24x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Gram | 2.98x | 1.32x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 3.24x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 2.44x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 3.40x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 2.66x | 1.58x | Strong |
| Bittensor | 3.86x | 1.68x | Exceptional |
| NEAR Protocol | 3.17x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Aptos | 2.38x | 1.73x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 2.96x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.29x | 1.60x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 2.70x | 1.51x | Strong |
What is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services, excluding food and energy. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 3.49x a lot?
For a Core PCE release it is strong: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Core PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Core PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.