The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 July 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.1% for June 2026, against 0.3% in May 2026. Core prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims and Gross Domestic Product Report, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.15x, against 1.77x for a typical Core PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.99x, against a typical 2.11x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,922.39 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.09% lower, and an hour later 0.14% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.45% of its price, against 0.47% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Core PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 17, against 1.72x across 52. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 29 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.15x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the Core PCE release, with volatility at just 1.15 times baseline levels against the 1.80 times median recorded for this event since 2021. Volume stayed flat at 0.99 times normal turnover, well below the 2.15 times typical reading. The outcome fell under the 1.5 times threshold that marks any measurable response.
It also followed the Federal Reserve decision by one day. Ethereum moved from $1,922.39 at the release to a level 0.09 percent lower fifteen minutes later and 0.14 percent higher after one hour. Its high-low range reached 0.45 percent in the first hour, almost unchanged from the 0.47 percent range seen immediately before. The record therefore shows that even a cluster of releases can leave Ethereum largely unmoved when the surprise component remains limited.
How it compares
Across 69 Core PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 0.65 times the usual.
Thin line: Core PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 1.15x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1925.60 | 1922.39 | 1922.89 | 0.03% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 351 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 1925.60 | 1919.84 | 1922.10 | -0.02% | 0.30% | 0.11% | 682 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 1925.60 | 1919.84 | 1921.61 | -0.04% | 0.30% | 0.20% | 1,124 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 1925.60 | 1919.84 | 1920.61 | -0.09% | 0.30% | 0.37% | 1,538 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 1926.43 | 1919.84 | 1925.23 | 0.15% | 0.34% | 0.43% | 3,224 ETH |
| 1 hour | 1928.46 | 1919.84 | 1925.17 | 0.14% | 0.45% | 0.47% | 5,799 ETH |
| 2 hours | 1936.99 | 1913.49 | 1921.08 | -0.07% | 1.21% | 0.59% | 26,317 ETH |
| 4 hours | 1936.99 | 1913.49 | 1922.75 | 0.02% | 1.21% | 0.78% | 41,225 ETH |
| 6 hours | 1936.99 | 1913.49 | 1920.32 | -0.11% | 1.21% | 1.47% | 51,899 ETH |
| 8 hours | 1936.99 | 1912.99 | 1922.75 | 0.44% | 1.24% | 1.45% | 69,090 ETH |
| 12 hours | 1936.99 | 1913.49 | 1917.84 | -0.24% | 1.21% | 1.76% | 85,454 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Core PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0.96x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.15x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | Not measured | 1.81x | - |
| BNB | 2.42x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Solana | 1.49x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.21x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.49x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.41x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.68x | 1.62x | Ordinary |
| Sui | 1.52x | 1.53x | Ordinary |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.00x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.36x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.50x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.17x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | 0.00x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.01x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.98x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.49x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.08x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.71x | 1.68x | Ordinary |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.01x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.49x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 0.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.24x | 1.60x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 1.63x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
What is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services, excluding food and energy. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.15x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Core PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past Core PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.