Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.86x, against 1.77x for a typical Core PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.74x, against a typical 2.11x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,896.66 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.33% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.23% of its price, against 0.97% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 March 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.5% for February 2025, against 0.3% in January 2025. Core prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Core PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.86x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Core PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.79x.
What it means
Ethereum registered a strong reaction to the Core PCE release. Volatility reached 2.86x its normal quarter-hour level, well above the 1.80x median recorded across 69 prior Core PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 4.74x, against a typical 2.15x. Clometrix classifies the move as strong on that basis.
The price opened at $1,896.66 and fell 0.33 percent inside fifteen minutes before returning to unchanged after one hour. The high-low range widened to 1.23 percent in the hour after the print from 0.97 percent beforehand.
The event fell 39 days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window where timing has historically mattered little for Ethereum. The volatility ratio exceeded the 1.77x median seen in non-proximate releases.
Traders may note that Core PCE prints have produced comparable median volatility whether or not they cluster near policy meetings. The record supplies no basis for expecting any particular magnitude from the next release.
How it compares
Across 69 Core PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 1.62 times the usual.
Thin line: Core PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 2.86x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1903.87 | 1889.19 | 1889.57 | -0.38% | 0.77% | 0.10% | 7,930 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 1903.87 | 1880.66 | 1885.30 | -0.60% | 1.22% | 0.33% | 14,510 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 1903.87 | 1880.66 | 1884.67 | -0.64% | 1.22% | 0.53% | 17,670 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 1903.87 | 1880.66 | 1890.47 | -0.33% | 1.22% | 0.57% | 19,865 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 1903.87 | 1880.66 | 1884.32 | -0.65% | 1.22% | 0.89% | 25,364 ETH |
| 1 hour | 1903.87 | 1880.45 | 1896.35 | -0.02% | 1.23% | 0.97% | 38,646 ETH |
| 2 hours | 1903.87 | 1876.34 | 1888.67 | -0.42% | 1.45% | 3.38% | 77,380 ETH |
| 4 hours | 1903.87 | 1862.14 | 1872.53 | -1.29% | 2.19% | 3.38% | 138,195 ETH |
| 6 hours | 1903.87 | 1862.14 | 1873.97 | -1.21% | 2.19% | 3.43% | 172,204 ETH |
| 8 hours | 1925.00 | 1860.00 | 1872.53 | -1.89% | 3.38% | 5.75% | 264,485 ETH |
| 12 hours | 1907.30 | 1862.14 | 1905.90 | 0.48% | 2.37% | 7.73% | 234,459 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Core PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.00x | 2.03x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 2.86x | 1.77x | Strong |
| XRP | 3.95x | 1.81x | Exceptional |
| BNB | 2.02x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 2.67x | 1.57x | Strong |
| Dogecoin | 2.05x | 1.52x | Strong |
| TRON | 1.51x | 1.43x | Ordinary |
| Cardano | 3.00x | 1.90x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 2.90x | 1.62x | Strong |
| Sui | 2.50x | 1.53x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.99x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 2.37x | 1.51x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 2.77x | 1.55x | Strong |
| Litecoin | 2.72x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Gram | 1.32x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 2.61x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 2.45x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 2.43x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Aave | 2.33x | 1.58x | Strong |
| Bittensor | 2.40x | 1.68x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 3.09x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Aptos | 3.06x | 1.73x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 2.05x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.31x | 1.60x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 4.93x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
What is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services, excluding food and energy. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.86x a lot?
For a Core PCE release it is strong: the usual is 1.77x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Core PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past Core PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.