FOMC Minutes Hold Rates at 3.50%-3.75%, Bitcoin Stays Near $66,400

Bitcoin traded near $68,200 on February 16, down nearly 3% over the prior 24 hours. Ethereum fell more than 4% to around $1,970, while XRP shed over 5% to $1.48. Total crypto market capitalization dropped $70 billion to $2.425 trillion.The broad selloff across major assets points to a reduction in risk appetite that typically follows when participants reduce exposure ahead of potential policy shifts, transmitting through lower leverage and tighter dollar conditions that weigh on crypto valuations.Market SnapshotEighty-five of the top 100 tokens by market cap posted losses. The CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index declined nearly 6%. Bitcoin closed the day at $68,843.15. The moves occurred on a session with no scheduled US economic releases because of the Washington’s Birthday holiday.That breadth of declines shows how uniform the pullback in exposure became once positioning adjusted for the week ahead. Such uniformity often amplifies the effect on overall liquidity because selling pressure spreads across correlated holdings rather than remaining isolated to a few assets. The resulting reduction in open interest leaves the market more vulnerable to any subsequent shift in dollar funding costs or risk premia.Traders entered the week already positioned for the upcoming FOMC minutes and core PCE inflation report. The absence of fresh data left flows driven by weekend positioning and reduced liquidity typical of a holiday Monday. Broader risk appetite remained subdued after the prior week’s 1.7% decline in Bitcoin.That positioning reflects caution around how the recent inflation reading could alter expectations for the pace of easing, with any signal of persistence likely to support the dollar and pressure leveraged holdings in digital assets.Positioning Ahead of Key EventsWith January CPI having printed softer than expected at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year two sessions earlier, markets had initially seen relief. That relief proved short-lived once participants turned to the forward calendar. The next two sessions bring durable goods orders, FOMC minutes, and core PCE, all of which carry direct implications for rate-path expectations.The initial response to the inflation data showed how a softer reading can ease concerns over restrictive policy, supporting a rebound by improving liquidity conditions and encouraging risk taking.History shows that quiet sessions before clustered data releases often produce compressed ranges followed by sharp repricing once the first surprise arrives. The current setup mirrors early February, when Bitcoin fell 15% in a single session to near $60,000 after losing 52% from its October 2025 peak. Total crypto market value has already contracted almost 50% from that same high.Compressed ranges in low-volume conditions tend to resolve through deleveraging once new information arrives because positions built during the lull lack the depth to absorb larger flows. When that happens the transmission to crypto occurs first through margin adjustments and then through wider credit spreads that raise the cost of holding volatile assets.Trading ImplicationsEthereum’s 4.6% weekly decline to $2,007 underscores relative underperformance in smart-contract assets. Reduced holiday volume amplifies any stop-driven moves once Wednesday’s releases begin.Underperformance in smart contract platforms often signals that capital is rotating away from higher-beta areas when overall sentiment weakens, which can precede further deleveraging if yields rise.Traders are watching whether the recent cooling in inflation prints can offset potential hawkish signals in the minutes. Any widening in rate-cut odds would likely compress volatility; a re-pricing higher in yields would extend the current risk-off tone.Whether the cooling trend sustains will determine if volatility compresses or if yields push higher and extend pressure on positions through stronger dollar flows.What to WatchDurable Orders and Durable Orders Ex Transportation release at 8:30 AM ET on February 18; surprises here can shift growth expectations and dollar strength ahead of the minutes. FOMC Minutes at 2:00 PM ET the same day will clarify the committee’s reaction function after the softer CPI print. Balance of Trade, Initial Claims, and International trade figures follow on February 19. The GDP Report, Personal Income, PCE, and Core PCE arrive February 20 and will set the tone for the remainder of the month.

16th February 2026

Bitcoin opened the release window at $67,202.The combination of sharply lower growth and sticky core inflation shifted positioning immediately. Traders who had carried long crypto exposure into the week faced an abrupt repricing of the Fed’s next move.What Released and What It MeansThe GDP, personal income and PCE figures were released alongside one another.The growth miss signals a material cooling in economic momentum while the inflation components remain above the Fed’s comfort zone. That combination narrows the window for near-term rate cuts and raises the bar for any dovish pivot at upcoming meetings.The softer growth print raises the prospect that liquidity drains more quickly if policy stays restrictive, weighing on risk appetite and forcing leveraged long positions in crypto to reduce exposure as funding costs stay elevated.The persistent core reading keeps the dollar supported, limiting the transmission of any risk-on flows into crypto and capping upside in leverage-driven rebounds.Historical ContextSimilar growth-inflation mismatches have produced quick deleveraging in crypto. After the January 2022 Fed minutes release Bitcoin fell nearly 9%. In November 2022, minutes showing slower policy easing prompted crypto to pare initial gains. Both episodes featured sticky inflation data that overrode softer growth prints and forced rapid unwinds of rate-cut bets.Those precedents suggest the current setup favors continued two-way volatility rather than a sustained directional move until the next labor-market or inflation release clarifies the path.The current mismatch echoes those cases by showing that growth weakness alone does not ease pressure on leveraged crypto holdings when inflation stays firm, because the dollar retains its bid and risk assets face tighter carry conditions.How Bitcoin Reacted, MeasuredBitcoin stood at $67,202 at the 8:30 AM ET release. It fell 0.9% within fifteen minutes and remained 0.3% lower after one hour. The hour’s high-to-low span reached 1.4% versus 0.9% in the prior hour. Volatility ratio printed 4.93x and volume ratio 17.68x. Clometrix ranks the reaction first among the last twelve GDP releases; the median stands at 2.00x. Ether opened at $1,947, also down 0.9% in the first fifteen minutes.The magnitude and rank indicate the market had not fully priced the joint growth slowdown and persistent core inflation. The move qualifies as an outsized reaction for the GDP event cluster.The elevated volatility ratio shows that the data altered leverage dynamics faster than typical GDP releases, transmitting the policy-path shift directly into forced position adjustments across crypto books.How Crypto Responded Ether mirrored the path, closing the hour 0.3% lower. Broader altcoin volumes rose in tandem but without outsized liquidation clusters reported in the immediate window.The parallel decline in ether illustrates how the same liquidity and dollar channels affected the broader risk spectrum, keeping leverage reductions orderly yet preventing any rebound until the policy outlook clarifies.The Broader Macro PictureThe prints reinforce a higher-for-longer rate environment. With the Fed already holding the target range at 3.50%-3.75% and minutes showing little urgency for cuts, today’s data reduce the probability of an early easing cycle. The dollar and yields are likely to stay supported until clearer disinflation evidence emerges.That sustained support for the dollar transmits into crypto by keeping carry costs high, which discourages fresh leverage build-up and leaves positions vulnerable to further downside if subsequent data fail to show disinflation.Trading Implications Traders should size positions for continued elevated volatility around the next data prints rather than assuming a quick reversion to the prior range.What to WatchInitial Claims and Continued Claims on 26 February will provide the first labor-market read since today’s growth and inflation data. A surprise to the upside in claims would reinforce the cooling narrative; a downside surprise would keep rate-cut odds suppressed. PPI and Core PPI follow on 27 February, offering the next direct inflation gauge. Retail Sales on 6 March and the full Non-Farm Payrolls report the same day will test whether the slowdown is broadening into employment.

20th February 2026

Bitcoin opened the session at $67,612 and closed at $64,630, down 4.4%. The move extended a week-long retreat that left the asset below the $65,000 level cited by multiple desks as near-term support.Global crypto market capitalisation finished the day at $2.25 trillion, a 3.72% decline. Total trading volume across all assets reached $103.64 billion, while BTC dominance held at 59.2%.Market SnapshotBitcoin traded between $63,868 and $67,654 during the session. Separate data showed a close of $64,616.74 on volume of $50.95 billion. Ether ended at $1,855.50, down 4.30% on the day.Long liquidations accounted for $416.63 million of the $457.41 million total across the market. US Bitcoin spot ETF inflows remained positive at $88.0 million.The close shows how a breach of support can accelerate deleveraging that feeds directly into tighter funding conditions across exchanges. That volume level indicates participation remained elevated enough to clear positions without a deeper collapse in bids. The ether close reveals correlated weakness that often precedes broader risk-off flows into the dollar. The daily ether decline highlights how leverage in perpetual futures transmits equity-market caution straight into altcoin funding rates. The long liquidation share points to one-sided positioning that leaves the market with reduced immediate selling pressure once the unwind finishes.That session range reveals how quickly bids can evaporate once a key level gives way, altering the path for policy expectations by keeping risk assets under pressure through reduced liquidity. The close transmits to crypto by widening spreads in funding markets and prompting deleveraging that raises the cost of holding leveraged positions. That volume level shows sustained interest capable of absorbing the unwind without forcing a deeper re-pricing of terminal rates.Altcoin MovesSolana fell 6.08% to $77.75. XRP closed at $1.3516, off 2.97%, while Dogecoin slipped 3.02% to $0.09257.Weekly Bitcoin volume stood at $34.4 billion, 21% lower than the prior week. Market capitalisation for Bitcoin itself reached $1.29 trillion at the close.The solana move illustrates how higher-beta assets amplify the same liquidity drain visible in bitcoin dominance. The xrp close shows that even large-cap tokens with different narratives still follow the dollar and treasury-yield path. The dogecoin close indicates that meme-driven leverage unwinds faster once overall risk appetite fades. The weekly volume drop signals that turnover is contracting, which can magnify the price impact of any subsequent flows. The bitcoin market-cap level shows the scale of wealth effect that now feeds into household and fund risk budgets.That dominance level keeps the transmission from dollar strength more contained than a full risk-off would produce because capital rotates inside the complex rather than exiting. The weekly volume contraction raises the sensitivity of price to any fresh spot flows once leverage has been cleared.Trading ImplicationsPositioning appears lighter after the liquidation wave. ETF inflows continued, suggesting spot demand has not collapsed, yet the scale of long unwinds limits immediate upside conviction.The liquidation total reveals how prior leverage had built up to levels where a support break forces rapid position reduction that clears the path for steadier spot-driven moves. The inflow amount shows that cash buyers remain active even as futures leverage resets, which can limit downside follow-through compared with prior episodes of similar dominance readings. The dominance holding steady indicates capital is rotating within the complex rather than leaving entirely, keeping the transmission from dollar strength more contained than a full risk-off would produce.That lighter positioning after the wave reduces the probability of cascading margin calls on any near-term rebound in risk appetite. The continued inflows demonstrate that the wealth effect from earlier gains has not fully reversed, supporting a floor even while futures markets digest the reset in open interest.What to WatchInitial Claims and Continued Claims are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, February 26. A hotter-than-expected print would reinforce the recent narrative of resilient labour data and could keep pressure on rate-cut expectations.PPI and Core PPI follow on Friday, February 27 at the same time. These releases will provide the next direct read on upstream price pressures ahead of the March 6 employment report.Import and Export Prices arrive on March 5, followed by Retail Sales and the full Non-Farm Payrolls suite on March 6. Each carries the potential to shift the dollar and Treasury yields, the primary transmission channels into crypto liquidity.The labour-market prints affect how traders price the persistence of restrictive policy that keeps real yields elevated and compresses crypto multiples. The upstream inflation reads alter expectations for how quickly liquidity can return once the dollar stops attracting safe-haven bids. The price and sales data together shape the risk-reward on leveraged long exposure by changing the probability of near-term funding relief.Those labour readings change the odds that real yields stay restrictive long enough to keep multiples compressed across risk assets. The inflation path implied by the upstream prints determines whether liquidity conditions ease gradually or remain tight, directly influencing the dollar's safe-haven bid and the resulting pressure on crypto funding rates.

23rd February 2026