FOMC Minutes Flag Steady Rates Through Year-End, Bitcoin Drops Below $90,000

Bitcoin traded around $95,155 after touching a low of $92,985 on November 17, having already slipped below $93,000 to mark a fresh six-month low and erase all 2025 gains. The move extended a 27 percent decline from the October high near $127,500. Ethereum followed lower, breaking briefly below $3,000 before settling near $3,168 after an intraday low of $3,022.More than $1.1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over the prior 24 hours, with 83 percent of those hits landing on long positions. Bitcoin accounted for $18.2 million of the total while Ethereum saw $50.7 million. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $390 million in net outflows on November 16 alone, pushing the November cumulative redemptions to $2.73 billion.Bitcoin's Fresh Lows and Liquidation CascadeThe absence of scheduled US economic releases on November 17 left traders without fresh fundamental anchors. Price action instead reflected ongoing deleveraging after weeks of ETF redemptions and the sharp drop from October highs. Bitcoin hovered near $95,000 while Ethereum swung between $3,020 and $3,210. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 17 out of 100, its lowest reading since April.Heavy long liquidations amplified the downside move, turning a modest risk-off mood into a sharper unwind. With no data prints to shift expectations, positioning adjustments dominated flows. That cascade shows how prior leverage had concentrated exposure on one side of the book, so any incremental selling pressure forced rapid position closure that removed bids and widened spreads across correlated assets. The resulting drop in open interest signals that the market has already shed a layer of speculative length, which can limit further downside acceleration even if broader risk appetite stays subdued. Transmission occurs as reduced leverage lowers the sensitivity of crypto to small shifts in dollar funding costs, allowing price to stabilize once the forced selling exhausts itself.ETF Outflows and Corporate AccumulationNovember outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.73 billion through November 16, underscoring sustained institutional selling pressure. At the same time, Strategy purchased 8,178 Bitcoin for approximately $835 million, providing one counter-flow amid the broader exodus. The contrast highlights divergent views between corporate treasuries and ETF holders during the correction.Traders monitored central bank signals, derivatives positioning and on-chain activity as the dominant drivers in the data vacuum. The lack of near-term US releases kept focus on positioning rather than fresh macro surprises.Those ETF redemptions illustrate how institutional vehicles transmit liquidity conditions directly into spot markets, because authorized participants must sell underlying holdings to meet daily creations and redemptions. When such outflows coincide with already-elevated leverage, the combined effect tightens available float and raises the cost of maintaining long exposure. Corporate accumulation, by contrast, absorbs coins into long-term custody that rarely re-enters circulation, which can support a higher floor once speculative length has been cleared.Trading ImplicationsBitcoin's break below $93,000 leaves the market testing support near $93,000. Ethereum's breach of $3,000 adds downside momentum, though intraday recovery attempts remain capped around $3,200. Leverage remains a key risk, with any further long-side unwinds likely to target the same levels.Position sizing should account for the elevated liquidation volume already observed. The depth of prior long liquidations indicates that remaining positions now sit at lower average leverage, which reduces the probability of another cascade of similar magnitude unless fresh buying re-enters on margin. Traders therefore face a narrower band of immediate downside risk but must still size for the possibility that any recovery rally encounters overhead supply from re-entering sellers who were stopped out earlier. Risk-appetite recovery would require evidence that dollar liquidity is no longer tightening, because tighter conditions raise the opportunity cost of holding volatile assets and keep leverage multiples compressed.What to WatchInternational trade data and FOMC Minutes arrive on November 19 at 8:30 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. ET respectively. The minutes will clarify how officials view the current policy path after recent data delays. A hawkish tilt would pressure risk assets further, while dovish language could support recovery attempts.Initial Claims, Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls follow on November 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET. These prints carry direct implications for rate-cut probabilities and dollar strength, both of which influence crypto liquidity conditions. Retail Sales and PPI data on November 25 will provide the next inflation read after the government shutdown delays.Any shift in the perceived path of policy alters the relative attractiveness of dollar funding versus risk assets, because a more restrictive stance supports a stronger dollar that draws capital away from crypto while an easier stance releases liquidity that can flow into leveraged positions. The measured reaction in price to such signals will therefore depend on how much speculative length has already been removed, since a market with lower open interest transmits the same policy surprise with smaller price displacement than one still carrying elevated leverage.

17th November 2025

The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the October CPI release on November 21 due to the government shutdown. Bitcoin traded around $85,310, down 7 percent over the prior 24 hours, and touched a seven-month low of $81,668. Total crypto market capitalization stood near $2.95 trillion before slipping below $3 trillion for the first time since May 8.Nearly $958 million in positions were liquidated in the past day, with US Bitcoin spot ETFs recording $903.2 million in net outflows. Ethereum fell to $2,784 and briefly touched $2,661.37. The selloff follows Thursday’s labor data that showed September nonfarm payrolls at 119,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4 percent.Labor Data Aftermath The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4 percent. Initial claims for the week ended November 15 came in at 220,000. Continued claims for the week ended November 8 printed 1,960,000.These figures arrived together at 8:30 AM ET on November 20 and pointed to a softening labor market that still exceeded consensus expectations. The combination reinforced the view that the Fed faces mixed signals heading into its December decision, with no fresh inflation print available to clarify the path.The higher unemployment reading signals slower hiring that could prompt easier financial conditions through lower yields and a softer dollar. The claims prints indicate more workers remaining out of work for longer stretches, raising the odds that liquidity conditions loosen faster than previously anticipated and support leveraged risk assets. Nonfarm private payrolls at the reported level show private sector hiring still adding modestly yet below the pace needed to absorb labor force growth, transmitting to crypto via reduced pressure on the dollar and greater risk appetite for high-beta positions. The overall labor mix leaves traders positioned for policy easing that favors carry trades and reduces the cost of leverage in digital assets.Bitcoin and Ether Reaction MeasuredBitcoin stood at $91,918 when the labor releases hit. It fell 0.3 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.5 percent within the hour. The high-to-low span reached 2.3 percent of price in the hour after the print versus 0.4 percent in the hour before. Volatility ran at 2.32 times an ordinary quarter-hour and volume at 2.92 times. That volatility ratio ranked third among the last twelve Continued Claims releases, whose median stands at 1.47 times.Ether printed at $3,023 at the release. It declined 0.7 percent in fifteen minutes and 0.3 percent after an hour. Its span reached 2.8 percent versus 0.8 percent beforehand. The move showed that the labor surprise was already partially priced, yet the subsequent price action on November 21 confirmed that risk appetite had deteriorated further.The larger initial volatility in ether relative to its pre-release baseline shows the data amplified cross-asset beta more than bitcoin, transmitting the labor softening directly into higher equity correlations and forced deleveraging. Bitcoin’s volume surge above the quarter-hour norm indicates leveraged long positions were unwound quickly once the mixed signals reached screens, limiting further downside in the immediate window while leaving room for later sentiment erosion through ETF flows.Trading ImplicationsEther’s larger percentage decline leaves it more exposed to equity beta.The elevated volume ratio after the release means traders face wider spreads and faster stop runs when holding ether through data events, requiring tighter position sizing to avoid liquidation cascades that hit bitcoin less severely.What to WatchRetail Sales and Core PPI arrive on November 25 at 8:30 AM ET. A surprise to the downside in retail sales would reinforce the softening growth narrative already visible in the labor data. Durable Orders on November 26 will provide another read on capital spending. Initial Claims on November 26 and December 4 will show whether the recent uptick in claims persists. Core PCE on December 5 remains the next inflation gauge the Fed will receive.What the CPI Release MeasuresThe Consumer Price Index tracks the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by urban households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the index each month. Crypto markets follow CPI because it shapes expectations for Federal Reserve policy, which in turn influences dollar liquidity and risk-asset demand.

21st November 2025

Bitcoin traded at $97,078 on November 14 2025, down 5.62 percent in 24 hours and touching an intraday low of $96,841, its weakest level since May. Ethereum fell to $3,189, a decline of 8.98 percent over the same period. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3.27 trillion, off 6.14 percent.What Drove the SelloffMore than $1.1 billion in crypto derivatives positions were liquidated during the session, including roughly $510 million from bitcoin pairs. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $870 million in net outflows on the prior day. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index printed at 25, underscoring the risk-off tone. Trading volume across crypto markets reached $259.64 billion. Anchorage Digital took delivery of 4,094 BTC worth approximately $405 million amid the move.That scale of liquidations shows how quickly leverage can amplify price moves once a threshold is crossed, forcing sales that pressure the dollar higher and reduce risk appetite across correlated assets. The outflows from spot products reflect reduced conviction among traditional investors, tightening available liquidity and making it harder for prices to stabilize without fresh buying interest. A reading at that level on the sentiment gauge marks a contraction in willingness to hold volatile positions, which transmits to crypto by widening spreads and prompting further deleveraging as margin requirements tighten.The government shutdown delayed both the October Producer Price Index and Retail Sales reports, leaving traders without fresh inflation and spending data. With the next FOMC decision scheduled for December 10, the absence of those prints removed near-term clarity on the inflation path and left positioning vulnerable to the liquidations already in motion.Without those updates the market lost a key anchor for judging how quickly policy might adjust, leaving the dollar's path more dependent on existing bets and increasing the chance that any shift in risk appetite spills directly into crypto leverage ratios.Historical ContextLiquidation cascades of this scale have precedents. On October 10 2025 roughly $19.16 billion in positions were wiped out in a single session. February 3 2025 saw $2.3 billion cleared after tariff announcements, while the yen carry trade unwind on August 5 2024 produced $1.2 billion in liquidations. Each episode produced sharp but ultimately contained drawdowns once leverage was removed and bids reappeared at lower levels.How Crypto RespondedBitcoin market capitalization stood at $1.883 trillion while Ethereum's reached $374.6 billion. Solana traded at $138.68, down 4.43 percent, and XRP at $2.244, off 3.74 percent. Total crypto trading volume printed near $254 billion. The breadth of the decline across majors and the concentration of liquidations in bitcoin pairs pointed to deleveraging rather than a fundamental shift in long-term holdings.That pattern of volume alongside the market-cap figures shows participation remained elevated even as prices fell, suggesting the move cleared weak hands without triggering widespread capitulation among larger holders.The Broader Macro PictureThe shutdown-induced data blackout keeps the December 10 FOMC decision in focus, with traders still assessing how persistent inflation readings from earlier months will shape the terminal rate. Equity and crypto correlations remained elevated as risk assets sold off together, while the lack of fresh CPI or PPI prints left the dollar's near-term direction dependent on positioning rather than new economic signals.With correlations high the transmission from equity weakness to crypto occurs mainly through shared risk-premium adjustments, where any further tightening in financial conditions can quickly raise funding costs for leveraged positions.Trading ImplicationsKey support for bitcoin sits near the $96,841 low reached during the session. Elevated liquidation volumes suggest further chop until the next batch of economic data clarifies the policy outlook. Positions that survived the cascade now face the risk of renewed volatility once the delayed reports finally arrive.Surviving positions must now contend with thinner order books that can exaggerate the next move in either direction once fresh data arrives, making careful sizing essential to avoid repeat margin pressure.What to WatchInternational trade data and the FOMC minutes arrive on November 19 at 8:30 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. ET respectively; any surprise in the trade balance or hawkish language in the minutes could reset rate expectations. Unemployment claims, the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls follow on November 20, where a softer print would reopen the door to earlier easing while a hot number would reinforce higher-for-longer pricing. Retail sales and PPI on November 25 will supply the first post-shutdown inflation and spending signals, with deviations likely to drive immediate repricing in both rates and crypto leverage.

14th November 2025