BTC Volatility Analysis for Balance of Trade, 4th October 2019

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis on 4 October 2019 at 8:30 AM EDT. The deficit widened to $48.7B for August 2019, from $48.4B (The International Trade Balance in Goods and Services).

It arrived at the same moment as International Imports in Goods and Services, International Exports in Goods and Services, Non-Farm Payrolls, Non-Farm Private Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.79x, against 1.10x for a typical Balance of Trade release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.70x, against a typical 1.22x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $8,144.73 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.23% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.4% of its price, against 0.63% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Balance of Trade releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin less than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 0.97x across 23, against 1.25x across 47. This one came out 7 days before the Federal Reserve's 11 October rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.79x compares with 0.97x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About International Trade Balance in Goods and Services

The balance of trade (BOT) measures economic transactions between a nation and its trading partners, showing the difference between the value of a country's imports and exports for a given period. The BEA and Census Bureau reports on the U.S. balance of payments (BOP), covering goods and services that move in and out of the country. Economists use this information to gauge the relative strength of a country's economy. When exports are higher than imports, it tends to boost GDP. In the opposite scenario, it creates a trade deficit.