Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.67x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.47x, against a typical 1.74x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $19,627.17 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.49% higher, and an hour later 0.44% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.52% of its price, against 0.56% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 14 October 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. Retail Sales came in at -0.3% for September 2022, against 0.6% in August 2022. Retail sales are falling, after a rise.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Import Price Index and Export Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.67x compares with 1.54x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Retail Sales releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 1.54x.
About Retail Sales
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending, an important indicator of the US GDP. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
19,425.61Close
19,207.6824h Change
-217.93 (-1.13%)24h High
19,951.8724h Low
19,070.3724h Volume
347,825 BTCUS Retail Sales
Bureau of Census
14th October, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 19653.46 | 19656.80 | 19620.00 | 19627.17 | -0.13% | 0.19% | 295 BTC |
| During | 19627.17 | 19671.00 | 19556.77 | 19657.58 | 0.15% | 0.58% | 1,681 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19633.08 | 19667.73 | 19620.00 | 19627.17 | -0.03% | 0.24% | 1,182 BTC |
| During | 19627.17 | 19700.00 | 19556.77 | 19688.56 | 0.31% | 0.73% | 3,790 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19633.29 | 19667.73 | 19617.89 | 19627.17 | -0.03% | 0.25% | 2,130 BTC |
| During | 19627.17 | 19720.35 | 19556.77 | 19713.09 | 0.44% | 0.83% | 5,481 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19610.79 | 19667.73 | 19595.00 | 19627.17 | 0.08% | 0.37% | 3,172 BTC |
| During | 19627.17 | 19726.97 | 19556.77 | 19724.07 | 0.49% | 0.86% | 7,115 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19596.25 | 19667.73 | 19593.60 | 19627.17 | 0.16% | 0.38% | 5,891 BTC |
| During | 19627.17 | 19854.48 | 19556.77 | 19802.96 | 0.89% | 1.50% | 15,105 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 19697.90 | 19698.47 | 19588.22 | 19627.17 | -0.36% | 0.56% | 12,340 BTC |
| During | 19627.17 | 19854.48 | 19556.77 | 19714.40 | 0.44% | 1.50% | 23,823 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19714.52 | 19748.54 | 19588.22 | 19627.17 | -0.45% | 0.81% | 23,610 BTC |
| During | 19627.17 | 19854.48 | 19351.09 | 19456.48 | -0.88% | 2.54% | 61,131 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19572.14 | 19748.54 | 19530.00 | 19627.17 | 0.28% | 1.11% | 50,465 BTC |
| During | 19627.17 | 19854.48 | 19220.73 | 19327.45 | -1.55% | 3.19% | 106,811 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19820.45 | 19830.00 | 19530.00 | 19627.17 | -0.98% | 1.51% | 83,398 BTC |
| During | 19627.17 | 19854.48 | 19211.08 | 19270.98 | -1.85% | 3.24% | 129,229 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19425.61 | 19951.87 | 19391.08 | 19572.14 | 0.75% | 2.81% | 121,009 BTC |
| During | 19572.14 | 19854.48 | 19220.73 | 19327.45 | -1.27% | 3.19% | 157,276 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19425.61 | 19951.87 | 19391.08 | 19627.17 | 1.03% | 2.81% | 171,475 BTC |
| During | 19627.17 | 19854.48 | 19070.37 | 19207.68 | -2.18% | 3.95% | 176,350 BTC |
