Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 5.29x, against 1.43x for a typical Retail Sales release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.06x, against a typical 1.51x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,965.43 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.11% lower, and an hour later 1.08% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.21% of its price, against 1.04% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 16 December 2025 at 8:30 AM EST. Retail Sales came in at 0.0% for October 2025, against 0.2% in September 2025. Retail sales were flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Non-Farm Payrolls, Non-Farm Private Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.39x across 27, against 1.43x across 43. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 5.29x compares with 1.43x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Retail Sales releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.43x.
About Retail Sales
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending, an important indicator of the US GDP. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,949.73Close
2,961.2824h Change
11.55 (0.39%)24h High
2,981.8724h Low
2,876.0024h Volume
368,468 ETHUS Retail Sales
Bureau of Census
16th December, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2957.24 | 2976.21 | 2957.05 | 2965.43 | 0.28% | 0.64% | 2,446 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2946.39 | 2953.64 | -0.40% | 1.19% | 5,869 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2957.16 | 2976.21 | 2955.16 | 2965.43 | 0.28% | 0.71% | 4,342 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2923.07 | 2926.11 | -1.34% | 1.97% | 13,838 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2952.15 | 2976.21 | 2949.87 | 2965.43 | 0.45% | 0.89% | 6,446 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2919.41 | 2938.67 | -0.91% | 2.09% | 19,011 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2953.27 | 2976.21 | 2949.87 | 2965.43 | 0.41% | 0.89% | 8,452 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2919.41 | 2932.56 | -1.12% | 2.09% | 21,303 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2951.94 | 2976.21 | 2945.45 | 2965.43 | 0.45% | 1.03% | 12,760 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2908.79 | 2910.67 | -1.88% | 2.45% | 27,758 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2950.14 | 2976.21 | 2945.45 | 2965.43 | 0.52% | 1.03% | 17,540 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2933.37 | -1.09% | 3.19% | 50,573 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2958.28 | 2976.21 | 2945.45 | 2965.43 | 0.24% | 1.03% | 27,447 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2925.72 | -1.36% | 3.19% | 78,628 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2929.75 | 2976.21 | 2921.26 | 2965.43 | 1.20% | 1.85% | 52,165 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2931.75 | -1.15% | 3.19% | 122,324 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2931.14 | 2976.21 | 2918.21 | 2965.43 | 1.16% | 1.95% | 79,659 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2930.91 | -1.18% | 3.19% | 153,917 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2949.73 | 2966.34 | 2876.00 | 2929.76 | -0.68% | 3.05% | 117,926 ETH |
| During | 2929.75 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2931.75 | 0.07% | 3.19% | 174,490 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2949.73 | 2976.21 | 2876.00 | 2965.43 | 0.53% | 3.37% | 170,091 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2961.28 | -0.14% | 3.19% | 198,377 ETH |
