Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.16x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.13x, against a typical 1.74x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $87,367.60 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.5% lower, and an hour later 0.49% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.92% of its price, against 0.57% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 16 December 2025 at 8:30 AM EST. Retail Sales came in at 0.0% for October 2025, against 0.2% in September 2025. Retail sales were flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Non-Farm Payrolls, Non-Farm Private Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.16x compares with 1.54x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Retail Sales releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 1.54x.
About Retail Sales
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending, an important indicator of the US GDP. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
85,910.61Close
87,760.4724h Change
1849.86 (2.11%)24h High
88,175.9824h Low
85,266.0024h Volume
18,193 BTCUS Retail Sales
Bureau of Census
16th December, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 87224.52 | 87440.13 | 87223.92 | 87367.60 | 0.16% | 0.25% | 40 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 87204.23 | 87370.32 | 0.00% | 0.66% | 250 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 87382.34 | 87566.59 | 87223.92 | 87367.60 | -0.02% | 0.39% | 231 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86866.91 | 86867.25 | -0.58% | 1.05% | 481 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 87299.32 | 87566.59 | 87214.99 | 87367.60 | 0.08% | 0.40% | 311 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86761.44 | 87080.73 | -0.33% | 1.17% | 678 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 87218.07 | 87566.59 | 87214.99 | 87367.60 | 0.17% | 0.40% | 387 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86761.44 | 86933.99 | -0.50% | 1.17% | 851 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 87212.98 | 87566.59 | 87064.75 | 87367.60 | 0.18% | 0.57% | 648 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86410.01 | 86443.02 | -1.07% | 1.57% | 1,496 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 87146.73 | 87566.59 | 87064.75 | 87367.60 | 0.25% | 0.57% | 1,113 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86107.43 | 86935.14 | -0.50% | 1.91% | 2,267 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 87142.67 | 87566.59 | 87000.00 | 87367.60 | 0.26% | 0.65% | 1,900 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86107.43 | 87163.39 | -0.23% | 1.91% | 3,986 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 86277.75 | 87566.59 | 86229.49 | 87367.60 | 1.25% | 1.53% | 3,320 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 88175.98 | 86107.43 | 87343.42 | -0.03% | 2.35% | 6,866 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 86227.31 | 87566.59 | 85850.00 | 87367.60 | 1.31% | 1.96% | 4,385 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 88175.98 | 86107.43 | 87438.48 | 0.08% | 2.35% | 8,522 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 85910.61 | 86615.38 | 85266.00 | 86277.75 | 0.43% | 1.56% | 4,527 BTC |
| During | 86277.75 | 88175.98 | 86107.43 | 87343.42 | 1.22% | 2.35% | 10,186 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 85910.61 | 87566.59 | 85266.00 | 87367.60 | 1.67% | 2.63% | 7,847 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 88175.98 | 86107.43 | 87760.47 | 0.45% | 2.35% | 10,346 BTC |
