Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 15 May 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. Retail Sales came in at -0.1% for April 2025, against 1.5% in March 2025. Retail sales are falling, after a rise.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Producer Price Index, Core Producer Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $102,536.51 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.25% higher, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.4% of its price, against 0.4% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.51x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.62x, against a typical 1.74x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.51x compares with 1.54x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Retail Sales releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 1.54x.
About Retail Sales
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending, an important indicator of the US GDP. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
103,768.24Close
103,742.0124h Change
-26.23 (-0.03%)24h High
104,192.7024h Low
101,383.0724h Volume
18,220 BTCUS Retail Sales
Bureau of Census
15th May, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 102527.95 | 102549.57 | 102527.94 | 102536.52 | 0.01% | 0.02% | 7 BTC |
| During | 102536.51 | 102808.04 | 102428.00 | 102619.36 | 0.08% | 0.37% | 161 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 102498.38 | 102610.00 | 102498.38 | 102536.52 | 0.04% | 0.11% | 47 BTC |
| During | 102536.51 | 102808.04 | 102428.00 | 102797.47 | 0.25% | 0.37% | 267 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 102413.17 | 102610.00 | 102341.95 | 102536.52 | 0.12% | 0.26% | 114 BTC |
| During | 102536.51 | 102838.82 | 102428.00 | 102719.96 | 0.18% | 0.40% | 363 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 102300.93 | 102610.00 | 102283.22 | 102536.52 | 0.23% | 0.32% | 162 BTC |
| During | 102536.51 | 102838.82 | 102428.00 | 102791.72 | 0.25% | 0.40% | 436 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 102371.62 | 102610.00 | 102271.58 | 102536.52 | 0.16% | 0.33% | 269 BTC |
| During | 102536.51 | 102838.82 | 102428.00 | 102560.00 | 0.02% | 0.40% | 713 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 102281.30 | 102610.00 | 102195.09 | 102536.52 | 0.25% | 0.40% | 559 BTC |
| During | 102536.51 | 102838.82 | 102428.00 | 102582.23 | 0.04% | 0.40% | 901 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 101906.34 | 102610.00 | 101600.00 | 102536.52 | 0.61% | 0.98% | 1,181 BTC |
| During | 102536.51 | 102838.82 | 101569.84 | 102040.94 | -0.49% | 1.23% | 2,323 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 102055.98 | 102610.00 | 101500.00 | 102536.52 | 0.47% | 1.08% | 2,611 BTC |
| During | 102536.51 | 103380.96 | 101383.07 | 103168.10 | 0.61% | 1.93% | 4,479 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 102634.92 | 102649.59 | 101500.00 | 102536.52 | -0.10% | 1.12% | 3,953 BTC |
| During | 102536.51 | 104192.70 | 101383.07 | 103491.85 | 0.92% | 2.70% | 6,873 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 103768.24 | 103866.51 | 101724.17 | 102055.98 | -1.68% | 2.06% | 4,260 BTC |
| During | 102055.98 | 103380.96 | 101383.07 | 103168.10 | 1.08% | 1.93% | 7,090 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 103768.24 | 103866.51 | 101500.00 | 102536.52 | -1.20% | 2.28% | 6,871 BTC |
| During | 102536.51 | 104192.70 | 101383.07 | 103742.01 | 1.16% | 2.70% | 11,349 BTC |
