BTC Volatility Analysis for Retail Sales, 18th January 2023

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.47x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.11x, against a typical 1.74x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $21,257.39 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.3% higher, and an hour later 0.68% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.14% of its price, against 0.36% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Census on 18 January 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. Retail Sales came in at -1.2% for December 2022, against -1.4% in November 2022. Retail sales are still falling, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Producer Price Index and Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Retail Sales releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one came out 14 days before the Federal Reserve's 1 February rate decision. Its own ratio of 3.47x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 Retail Sales releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 1.54x.

About Retail Sales

The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending, an important indicator of the US GDP. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.