Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 16 March 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. Retail Sales came in at -2.6% for February 2021, against 3.8% in January 2021. Retail sales are falling, after a rise.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Import Price Index and Export Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.26x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.39x, against a typical 1.74x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $55,164.44 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.62% lower, and an hour later 0.75% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.17% of its price, against 1.14% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one came out the day before the Federal Reserve's 17 March rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.26x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
About Retail Sales
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending, an important indicator of the US GDP. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
54,880.31Close
56,374.3024h Change
1493.99 (2.65%)24h High
57,189.4324h Low
53,271.3424h Volume
76,224 BTCUS Retail Sales
Bureau of Census
16th March, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 55081.90 | 55196.20 | 55066.86 | 55164.43 | 0.15% | 0.23% | 41 BTC |
| During | 55164.44 | 55167.46 | 55083.94 | 55133.26 | -0.06% | 0.15% | 46 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 55192.71 | 55198.93 | 55013.25 | 55164.43 | -0.05% | 0.34% | 217 BTC |
| During | 55164.44 | 55249.20 | 55057.71 | 55170.28 | 0.01% | 0.35% | 238 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 55308.04 | 55399.57 | 55000.37 | 55164.43 | -0.26% | 0.72% | 474 BTC |
| During | 55164.44 | 55249.20 | 54818.12 | 54971.06 | -0.35% | 0.78% | 685 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 55293.23 | 55399.57 | 55000.37 | 55164.43 | -0.23% | 0.72% | 660 BTC |
| During | 55164.44 | 55249.20 | 54777.00 | 54821.81 | -0.62% | 0.85% | 937 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 55464.11 | 55631.57 | 55000.37 | 55164.43 | -0.54% | 1.13% | 1,473 BTC |
| During | 55164.44 | 55249.20 | 54596.89 | 55091.95 | -0.13% | 1.18% | 1,916 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 55568.73 | 55631.57 | 55000.37 | 55164.43 | -0.73% | 1.13% | 3,394 BTC |
| During | 55164.44 | 55795.00 | 54596.89 | 55576.32 | 0.74% | 2.15% | 3,584 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 55670.29 | 56037.23 | 55000.37 | 55164.43 | -0.92% | 1.85% | 5,874 BTC |
| During | 55164.44 | 55906.86 | 54596.89 | 55333.90 | 0.31% | 2.34% | 6,403 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 55823.80 | 56400.00 | 55000.37 | 55164.43 | -1.20% | 2.48% | 11,270 BTC |
| During | 55164.44 | 56087.02 | 54596.89 | 55591.16 | 0.77% | 2.66% | 12,405 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 54030.02 | 56400.00 | 54030.01 | 55164.43 | 2.06% | 4.20% | 21,030 BTC |
| During | 55164.44 | 56087.02 | 54596.89 | 55361.34 | 0.36% | 2.66% | 18,091 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 54880.31 | 56100.00 | 53271.34 | 55823.81 | 1.69% | 5.04% | 33,191 BTC |
| During | 55823.80 | 56400.00 | 54596.89 | 55591.16 | -0.42% | 3.20% | 23,675 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 54880.31 | 56400.00 | 53271.34 | 55164.43 | 0.52% | 5.55% | 44,461 BTC |
| During | 55164.44 | 57189.43 | 54596.89 | 56374.30 | 2.15% | 4.53% | 31,762 BTC |
