Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.73x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales Ex Autos release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.12x, against a typical 1.74x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $17,547.02 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.28% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.73% of its price, against 1.19% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 15 December 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles came in at -1.1% for November 2022, against 0.8% in October 2022. Retail sales excluding autos are falling, after a rise.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales Ex Autos releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 14 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 2.73x compares with 1.54x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Retail Sales Ex Autos releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 1.54x.
About Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending excluding the automobile sector. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
17,801.87Close
17,392.7624h Change
-409.11 (-2.35%)24h High
17,805.8724h Low
17,275.5124h Volume
227,184 BTCUS Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
Bureau of Census
15th December, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 17533.69 | 17548.70 | 17520.00 | 17547.79 | 0.08% | 0.16% | 312 BTC |
| During | 17547.02 | 17579.98 | 17528.41 | 17571.73 | 0.14% | 0.29% | 658 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 17561.04 | 17563.31 | 17508.86 | 17547.79 | -0.08% | 0.31% | 1,682 BTC |
| During | 17547.02 | 17582.72 | 17515.24 | 17525.44 | -0.12% | 0.38% | 2,114 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 17554.18 | 17566.34 | 17508.86 | 17547.79 | -0.04% | 0.33% | 3,113 BTC |
| During | 17547.02 | 17582.72 | 17480.00 | 17505.74 | -0.24% | 0.58% | 4,407 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 17573.40 | 17605.54 | 17508.86 | 17547.79 | -0.15% | 0.55% | 6,060 BTC |
| During | 17547.02 | 17582.72 | 17480.00 | 17497.51 | -0.28% | 0.58% | 5,965 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 17683.89 | 17692.87 | 17508.86 | 17547.79 | -0.78% | 1.04% | 11,818 BTC |
| During | 17547.02 | 17582.72 | 17454.39 | 17506.34 | -0.23% | 0.73% | 10,846 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 17715.61 | 17717.31 | 17508.86 | 17547.79 | -0.96% | 1.18% | 15,603 BTC |
| During | 17547.02 | 17582.72 | 17454.39 | 17542.60 | -0.03% | 0.73% | 17,038 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 17689.05 | 17726.00 | 17508.86 | 17547.79 | -0.81% | 1.22% | 22,533 BTC |
| During | 17547.02 | 17582.72 | 17401.80 | 17428.87 | -0.68% | 1.03% | 38,261 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 17665.30 | 17726.00 | 17508.86 | 17547.79 | -0.67% | 1.22% | 34,166 BTC |
| During | 17547.02 | 17582.72 | 17341.77 | 17420.63 | -0.73% | 1.37% | 67,556 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 17727.92 | 17738.86 | 17508.86 | 17547.79 | -1.03% | 1.30% | 48,624 BTC |
| During | 17547.02 | 17582.72 | 17314.00 | 17428.72 | -0.68% | 1.53% | 87,128 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 17801.87 | 17805.87 | 17561.00 | 17665.93 | -0.77% | 1.38% | 54,438 BTC |
| During | 17665.30 | 17726.00 | 17341.77 | 17420.63 | -1.40% | 2.17% | 101,721 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 17801.87 | 17805.87 | 17508.86 | 17547.79 | -1.45% | 1.67% | 88,604 BTC |
| During | 17547.02 | 17582.72 | 17275.51 | 17392.76 | -0.89% | 1.75% | 138,581 BTC |
