BTC Volatility Analysis for Retail Sales Ex Autos, 15th November 2018

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Census on 15 November 2018 at 8:30 AM EST. The Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles came in at 1.1% for October 2018, against -0.3% in September 2018. Retail sales excluding autos are rising again, after a fall.

It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Import Price Index, Export Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.62x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales Ex Autos release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.85x, against a typical 1.74x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $5,596.23 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.17% higher, and an hour later 0.37% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.25% of its price, against 1.65% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Retail Sales Ex Autos releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.62x compares with 1.54x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles

The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending excluding the automobile sector. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.