Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.20x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales Ex Autos release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.56x, against a typical 1.74x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $83,194.30 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.18% higher, and an hour later 0.3% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.25% of its price, against 1.2% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 17 March 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles came in at 0.4% for February 2025, against -0.3% in January 2025. Retail sales excluding autos are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales Ex Autos releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one came out 2 days before the Federal Reserve's 19 March rate decision. Its own ratio of 3.20x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Retail Sales Ex Autos releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 1.54x.
About Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending excluding the automobile sector. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
82,890.00Close
83,755.3524h Change
865.35 (1.03%)24h High
84,756.8324h Low
82,456.0024h Volume
17,047 BTCUS Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
Bureau of Census
17th March, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 83248.00 | 83250.49 | 83193.12 | 83194.29 | -0.06% | 0.07% | 10 BTC |
| During | 83194.30 | 83894.91 | 83143.62 | 83433.65 | 0.29% | 0.90% | 286 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 83226.45 | 83263.12 | 83193.12 | 83194.29 | -0.04% | 0.08% | 29 BTC |
| During | 83194.30 | 83894.91 | 83143.62 | 83607.22 | 0.49% | 0.90% | 415 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 83186.01 | 83264.15 | 83002.01 | 83194.29 | 0.01% | 0.31% | 125 BTC |
| During | 83194.30 | 83894.91 | 83143.62 | 83335.29 | 0.17% | 0.90% | 614 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 83358.50 | 83358.50 | 83002.01 | 83194.29 | -0.20% | 0.43% | 202 BTC |
| During | 83194.30 | 83894.91 | 83143.62 | 83341.14 | 0.18% | 0.90% | 691 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 83514.73 | 84000.00 | 83002.01 | 83194.29 | -0.39% | 1.19% | 653 BTC |
| During | 83194.30 | 83894.91 | 83008.92 | 83052.00 | -0.17% | 1.06% | 950 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 83546.82 | 84000.00 | 83002.01 | 83194.29 | -0.42% | 1.19% | 906 BTC |
| During | 83194.30 | 83894.91 | 82853.21 | 82946.26 | -0.30% | 1.24% | 1,398 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 83471.50 | 84000.00 | 83002.01 | 83194.29 | -0.33% | 1.19% | 1,284 BTC |
| During | 83194.30 | 83894.91 | 82456.00 | 82779.51 | -0.50% | 1.72% | 3,281 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 83546.07 | 84000.00 | 83002.01 | 83194.29 | -0.42% | 1.19% | 2,305 BTC |
| During | 83194.30 | 83894.91 | 82456.00 | 83620.91 | 0.51% | 1.72% | 5,302 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 82912.58 | 84000.00 | 82682.62 | 83194.29 | 0.34% | 1.57% | 3,662 BTC |
| During | 83194.30 | 84347.83 | 82456.00 | 84127.09 | 1.11% | 2.24% | 7,219 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 82890.00 | 83869.77 | 82682.62 | 83546.08 | 0.79% | 1.42% | 4,535 BTC |
| During | 83546.07 | 84000.00 | 82456.00 | 83620.91 | 0.09% | 1.84% | 7,607 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 82890.00 | 84000.00 | 82682.62 | 83194.29 | 0.37% | 1.57% | 6,839 BTC |
| During | 83194.30 | 84756.83 | 82456.00 | 83755.35 | 0.67% | 2.71% | 10,207 BTC |
