Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 14 January 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles came in at -0.3% for December 2021, against 0.9% in November 2021. Retail sales excluding autos are falling, after a rise.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Import Price Index and Export Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.99x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales Ex Autos release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.56x, against a typical 1.74x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $42,230.01 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.07% higher, and an hour later 0.13% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.66% of its price, against 0.71% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales Ex Autos releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one came out 12 days before the Federal Reserve's 26 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.99x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
About Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending excluding the automobile sector. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
42,617.57Close
43,051.4524h Change
433.88 (1.01%)24h High
43,448.7824h Low
41,725.9524h Volume
31,990 BTCUS Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
Bureau of Census
14th January, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 42221.78 | 42237.08 | 42201.13 | 42230.00 | 0.02% | 0.09% | 16 BTC |
| During | 42230.01 | 42321.23 | 42230.00 | 42295.69 | 0.16% | 0.22% | 38 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42270.46 | 42306.55 | 42201.13 | 42230.00 | -0.10% | 0.25% | 80 BTC |
| During | 42230.01 | 42321.23 | 42185.94 | 42218.51 | -0.03% | 0.32% | 143 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42192.35 | 42306.55 | 42181.00 | 42230.00 | 0.09% | 0.30% | 186 BTC |
| During | 42230.01 | 42321.23 | 42168.38 | 42201.30 | -0.07% | 0.36% | 222 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42241.54 | 42306.55 | 42181.00 | 42230.00 | -0.03% | 0.30% | 309 BTC |
| During | 42230.01 | 42321.23 | 42168.38 | 42260.48 | 0.07% | 0.36% | 414 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42057.26 | 42306.55 | 42027.02 | 42230.00 | 0.41% | 0.66% | 611 BTC |
| During | 42230.01 | 42321.23 | 42112.00 | 42165.00 | -0.15% | 0.49% | 732 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 42016.43 | 42306.55 | 42008.26 | 42230.00 | 0.51% | 0.71% | 1,557 BTC |
| During | 42230.01 | 42390.00 | 42112.00 | 42286.17 | 0.13% | 0.66% | 1,484 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 41897.14 | 42306.55 | 41725.95 | 42230.00 | 0.79% | 1.37% | 3,835 BTC |
| During | 42230.01 | 43347.42 | 42112.00 | 43122.52 | 2.07% | 2.85% | 5,498 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42518.49 | 42688.84 | 41725.95 | 42230.00 | -0.68% | 2.26% | 7,927 BTC |
| During | 42230.01 | 43347.42 | 42112.00 | 43059.16 | 1.93% | 2.85% | 8,426 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42860.18 | 42875.00 | 41725.95 | 42230.00 | -1.49% | 2.68% | 11,225 BTC |
| During | 42230.01 | 43347.42 | 42112.00 | 43097.66 | 2.01% | 2.85% | 10,384 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42617.57 | 42978.10 | 42244.37 | 42518.49 | -0.23% | 1.71% | 9,213 BTC |
| During | 42518.49 | 43347.42 | 41725.95 | 43059.16 | 1.26% | 3.74% | 16,353 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42617.57 | 42978.10 | 41725.95 | 42230.00 | -0.92% | 2.91% | 17,140 BTC |
| During | 42230.01 | 43448.78 | 42112.00 | 43051.45 | 1.91% | 3.08% | 14,850 BTC |
