Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 15 April 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles came in at 9.1% for March 2021, against -2.3% in February 2021. Retail sales excluding autos are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.53x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales Ex Autos release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.79x, against a typical 1.74x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $62,638.14 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.13% higher, and an hour later 0.29% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.6% of its price, against 0.61% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales Ex Autos releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one came out 13 days before the Federal Reserve's 28 April rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.53x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
About Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending excluding the automobile sector. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
63,166.05Close
63,269.5024h Change
103.45 (0.16%)24h High
63,800.0024h Low
62,020.0024h Volume
51,401 BTCUS Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
Bureau of Census
15th April, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 62619.42 | 62645.99 | 62615.33 | 62638.19 | 0.03% | 0.05% | 21 BTC |
| During | 62638.14 | 62650.54 | 62622.00 | 62623.98 | -0.02% | 0.05% | 25 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62579.13 | 62645.99 | 62537.38 | 62638.19 | 0.09% | 0.17% | 116 BTC |
| During | 62638.14 | 62659.31 | 62600.00 | 62658.37 | 0.03% | 0.09% | 147 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62559.29 | 62645.99 | 62506.09 | 62638.19 | 0.13% | 0.22% | 245 BTC |
| During | 62638.14 | 62700.00 | 62600.00 | 62679.33 | 0.07% | 0.16% | 256 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62592.00 | 62645.99 | 62506.09 | 62638.19 | 0.07% | 0.22% | 377 BTC |
| During | 62638.14 | 62737.08 | 62600.00 | 62722.41 | 0.13% | 0.22% | 390 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62359.11 | 62645.99 | 62347.36 | 62638.19 | 0.45% | 0.48% | 902 BTC |
| During | 62638.14 | 62737.76 | 62549.75 | 62635.71 | 0.00% | 0.30% | 845 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 62351.24 | 62645.99 | 62264.21 | 62638.19 | 0.46% | 0.61% | 1,668 BTC |
| During | 62638.14 | 62928.58 | 62549.75 | 62822.38 | 0.29% | 0.60% | 2,013 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 62399.99 | 62645.99 | 62020.00 | 62638.19 | 0.38% | 1.00% | 4,170 BTC |
| During | 62638.14 | 63074.05 | 62549.75 | 62797.50 | 0.25% | 0.83% | 4,282 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 62678.35 | 62829.36 | 62020.00 | 62638.19 | -0.06% | 1.29% | 8,258 BTC |
| During | 62638.14 | 63074.05 | 62384.79 | 62711.89 | 0.12% | 1.09% | 9,189 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 62993.84 | 63200.00 | 62020.00 | 62638.19 | -0.57% | 1.87% | 12,319 BTC |
| During | 62638.14 | 63074.05 | 62308.00 | 62523.33 | -0.18% | 1.21% | 12,690 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 63166.05 | 63460.22 | 62333.55 | 62678.35 | -0.78% | 1.78% | 15,282 BTC |
| During | 62678.35 | 63074.05 | 62020.00 | 62711.89 | 0.05% | 1.67% | 17,447 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 63166.05 | 63460.22 | 62020.00 | 62638.19 | -0.84% | 2.27% | 23,540 BTC |
| During | 62638.14 | 63800.00 | 62308.00 | 63269.50 | 1.00% | 2.34% | 27,860 BTC |
