BTC Volatility Analysis for Retail Sales Ex Autos, 17th March 2020

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Census on 17 March 2020 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles came in at -0.1% for February 2020, against 0.2% in January 2020. Retail sales excluding autos are falling, after a rise.

It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.51x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales Ex Autos release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.47x, against a typical 1.74x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $5,273.03 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.16% higher, and an hour later 0.21% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.32% of its price, against 1.34% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Retail Sales Ex Autos releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one came out 6 days before the Federal Reserve's 23 March rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.51x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles

The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending excluding the automobile sector. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.