Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 17 January 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles came in at 0.1% for December 2023, against -0.1% in November 2023. Retail sales excluding autos are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Import Price Index and Export Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.35x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales Ex Autos release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.26x, against a typical 1.74x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $42,645.96 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.08% lower, and an hour later 0.24% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.77% of its price, against 0.88% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales Ex Autos releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one came out 14 days before the Federal Reserve's 31 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.35x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
About Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending excluding the automobile sector. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
43,187.97Close
42,659.7224h Change
-528.25 (-1.24%)24h High
43,195.7224h Low
42,200.6924h Volume
33,151 BTCUS Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
Bureau of Census
17th January, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 42661.15 | 42670.90 | 42645.14 | 42645.95 | -0.04% | 0.06% | 20 BTC |
| During | 42645.96 | 42645.96 | 42586.82 | 42597.81 | -0.11% | 0.14% | 41 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42612.55 | 42670.90 | 42585.05 | 42645.95 | 0.08% | 0.20% | 101 BTC |
| During | 42645.96 | 42663.90 | 42584.93 | 42638.93 | -0.02% | 0.19% | 133 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42651.41 | 42673.47 | 42585.05 | 42645.95 | -0.01% | 0.21% | 183 BTC |
| During | 42645.96 | 42698.06 | 42584.93 | 42689.99 | 0.10% | 0.26% | 224 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42665.13 | 42674.71 | 42585.05 | 42645.95 | -0.04% | 0.21% | 290 BTC |
| During | 42645.96 | 42729.20 | 42584.93 | 42610.00 | -0.08% | 0.34% | 341 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42782.42 | 42782.43 | 42585.05 | 42645.95 | -0.32% | 0.46% | 553 BTC |
| During | 42645.96 | 42729.20 | 42518.00 | 42609.84 | -0.08% | 0.49% | 753 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 42644.06 | 42788.00 | 42411.00 | 42645.95 | 0.00% | 0.88% | 2,019 BTC |
| During | 42645.96 | 42729.20 | 42401.00 | 42542.25 | -0.24% | 0.77% | 1,948 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42753.69 | 42830.00 | 42411.00 | 42645.95 | -0.25% | 0.98% | 3,683 BTC |
| During | 42645.96 | 42926.02 | 42365.58 | 42636.00 | -0.02% | 1.31% | 5,590 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42797.97 | 42850.55 | 42411.00 | 42645.95 | -0.36% | 1.03% | 5,680 BTC |
| During | 42645.96 | 42926.02 | 42200.69 | 42426.01 | -0.52% | 1.69% | 9,741 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42780.00 | 42850.55 | 42411.00 | 42645.95 | -0.31% | 1.03% | 8,243 BTC |
| During | 42645.96 | 42926.02 | 42200.69 | 42720.00 | 0.17% | 1.69% | 12,282 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 43187.97 | 43195.72 | 42564.00 | 42797.96 | -0.91% | 1.46% | 7,719 BTC |
| During | 42797.97 | 42926.02 | 42200.69 | 42426.01 | -0.88% | 1.69% | 15,421 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 43187.97 | 43195.72 | 42411.00 | 42645.95 | -1.27% | 1.82% | 13,398 BTC |
| During | 42645.96 | 42926.02 | 42200.69 | 42659.72 | 0.03% | 1.69% | 19,753 BTC |
