Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 14 September 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.7% for August 2023, against 0.5% in July 2023. Producer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Core Producer Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $26,408.45 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.96% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.5% of its price, against 0.88% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.18x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.52x, against a typical 2.30x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one came out 6 days before the Federal Reserve's 20 September rate decision. Its own ratio of 2.18x compares with 2.18x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the August Producer Price Index release. Its volatility ratio reached 2.18x in the quarter hour after the print, almost identical to the 2.08x median recorded across 70 PPI releases since 2021. Volume expanded 4.52x against a typical 2.30x, again in line with the event's usual footprint. The price itself stayed flat in the first fifteen minutes and rose 0.96 percent within the hour, while the hourly range widened only modestly to 1.5 percent from 0.88 percent beforehand.
The reading arrived at 8:30 AM EDT together with Retail Sales, Core PPI, and the two weekly claims figures, so the measured response reflects the combined arrival. Producer prices printed 0.7 percent month-over-month, up from 0.5 percent in July. The release fell six days before the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting.
Clometrix data show that PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.18x since 2021, virtually the same as releases at other times. This instance matched that pre-decision median exactly, confirming that proximity to the meeting did not alter the typical response pattern.
About Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
26,187.46Close
26,508.9224h Change
321.46 (1.21%)24h High
26,860.4924h Low
26,126.7724h Volume
38,315 BTCUS Producer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
14th September, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 26427.31 | 26427.31 | 26389.30 | 26408.45 | -0.07% | 0.14% | 88 BTC |
| During | 26408.45 | 26408.45 | 26380.00 | 26380.50 | -0.11% | 0.11% | 94 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 26474.78 | 26491.64 | 26389.30 | 26408.45 | -0.25% | 0.39% | 222 BTC |
| During | 26408.45 | 26408.45 | 26342.08 | 26380.42 | -0.11% | 0.25% | 625 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 26419.66 | 26499.00 | 26389.30 | 26408.45 | -0.04% | 0.41% | 435 BTC |
| During | 26408.45 | 26429.70 | 26342.08 | 26427.71 | 0.07% | 0.33% | 996 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 26497.94 | 26592.95 | 26389.30 | 26408.45 | -0.34% | 0.77% | 1,278 BTC |
| During | 26408.45 | 26451.89 | 26342.08 | 26414.52 | 0.02% | 0.42% | 1,132 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 26446.15 | 26592.95 | 26389.30 | 26408.45 | -0.14% | 0.77% | 1,792 BTC |
| During | 26408.45 | 26483.74 | 26342.08 | 26458.68 | 0.19% | 0.53% | 1,462 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 26374.01 | 26592.95 | 26360.44 | 26408.45 | 0.13% | 0.87% | 3,145 BTC |
| During | 26408.45 | 26737.23 | 26342.08 | 26661.87 | 0.95% | 1.48% | 4,120 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 26337.48 | 26592.95 | 26291.70 | 26408.45 | 0.27% | 1.13% | 4,117 BTC |
| During | 26408.45 | 26766.00 | 26342.08 | 26674.62 | 1.00% | 1.58% | 8,176 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 26328.04 | 26592.95 | 26270.00 | 26408.45 | 0.30% | 1.21% | 5,877 BTC |
| During | 26408.45 | 26798.50 | 26342.08 | 26648.85 | 0.90% | 1.70% | 13,452 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 26262.19 | 26592.95 | 26247.55 | 26408.45 | 0.55% | 1.30% | 7,569 BTC |
| During | 26408.45 | 26798.50 | 26342.08 | 26696.78 | 1.08% | 1.70% | 16,039 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 26187.46 | 26541.77 | 26126.77 | 26328.04 | 0.53% | 1.56% | 10,608 BTC |
| During | 26328.04 | 26798.50 | 26270.00 | 26648.85 | 1.20% | 1.97% | 19,329 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 26187.46 | 26592.95 | 26126.77 | 26408.45 | 0.84% | 1.75% | 16,485 BTC |
| During | 26408.45 | 26860.49 | 26342.08 | 26508.92 | 0.38% | 1.93% | 21,830 BTC |
