Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.37x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.49x, against a typical 2.30x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $27,207.34 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.29% lower, and an hour later 0.32% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.64% of its price, against 0.32% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 11 October 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.3% for September 2023, against 0.7% in August 2023. Producer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 3.37x compares with 2.05x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the September PPI release, posting a volatility ratio of 3.37x against the 2.08x median recorded across 70 PPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded 3.49x in the quarter hour after the print, well above the 2.30x benchmark for the event. The move exceeded the typical response even though the release arrived outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, where the historical median stands at 2.18x.
Price action remained contained despite the volatility spike
Bitcoin traded at $27,207.34 when the data appeared and finished 0.29 percent lower fifteen minutes later. The hourly range widened to 0.64 percent from 0.32 percent beforehand. The print itself showed producer prices rising 0.3 percent in September after a 0.7 percent gain in August, arriving alongside the core reading.
Lesson for the next release
Traders monitoring upcoming PPI prints can note that outsized volatility can occur even when the report falls well clear of policy meetings. The record shows the magnitude of the surprise relative to recent prints matters more than calendar proximity alone.
About Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
27,400.00Close
26,826.3724h Change
-573.63 (-2.14%)24h High
27,477.3924h Low
26,538.6624h Volume
37,569 BTCUS Producer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
11th October, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 27188.32 | 27207.34 | 27188.31 | 27207.34 | 0.07% | 0.07% | 13 BTC |
| During | 27207.34 | 27211.48 | 27174.18 | 27184.94 | -0.08% | 0.14% | 48 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 27189.99 | 27211.48 | 27183.24 | 27207.34 | 0.06% | 0.10% | 72 BTC |
| During | 27207.34 | 27211.48 | 27136.12 | 27144.99 | -0.23% | 0.28% | 243 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 27213.97 | 27217.61 | 27175.00 | 27207.34 | -0.02% | 0.16% | 190 BTC |
| During | 27207.34 | 27211.48 | 27037.68 | 27081.37 | -0.47% | 0.64% | 758 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 27241.46 | 27246.55 | 27175.00 | 27207.34 | -0.13% | 0.26% | 292 BTC |
| During | 27207.34 | 27211.48 | 27037.68 | 27129.56 | -0.29% | 0.64% | 962 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 27196.26 | 27262.45 | 27175.00 | 27207.34 | 0.04% | 0.32% | 531 BTC |
| During | 27207.34 | 27211.48 | 27037.68 | 27169.17 | -0.14% | 0.64% | 1,245 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 27230.20 | 27262.45 | 27175.00 | 27207.34 | -0.08% | 0.32% | 1,013 BTC |
| During | 27207.34 | 27211.48 | 27037.68 | 27121.40 | -0.32% | 0.64% | 1,729 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 27269.31 | 27295.00 | 27175.00 | 27207.34 | -0.23% | 0.44% | 1,918 BTC |
| During | 27207.34 | 27211.48 | 27037.68 | 27050.45 | -0.58% | 0.64% | 2,981 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 27031.51 | 27332.00 | 27021.21 | 27207.34 | 0.65% | 1.14% | 4,989 BTC |
| During | 27207.34 | 27211.48 | 26636.23 | 26699.99 | -1.90% | 2.11% | 10,602 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 27078.78 | 27332.00 | 27017.00 | 27207.34 | 0.47% | 1.15% | 6,942 BTC |
| During | 27207.34 | 27211.48 | 26538.66 | 26637.56 | -2.14% | 2.47% | 15,432 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 27400.00 | 27477.39 | 26964.89 | 27031.51 | -1.36% | 1.87% | 11,203 BTC |
| During | 27031.51 | 27332.00 | 26636.23 | 26699.99 | -1.24% | 2.55% | 15,591 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 27400.00 | 27477.39 | 26964.89 | 27207.34 | -0.71% | 1.87% | 16,192 BTC |
| During | 27207.34 | 27211.48 | 26538.66 | 26826.37 | -1.42% | 2.47% | 21,376 BTC |
