BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 11th October 2024

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 11 October 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.3% for September 2024, against 0.3% in August 2024. Producer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $61,272.76 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.12% lower, and an hour later 0.24% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.52% of its price, against 0.34% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.14x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.23x, against a typical 2.30x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.14x compares with 2.05x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.

What it means

Bitcoin's response to the September PPI release registered as ordinary by Clometrix standards. The volatility ratio reached 2.14x against the event median of 2.08x since 2021, while volume rose to 3.23x compared with the usual 2.30x. Price action stayed contained: the asset slipped 0.12 percent in the first fifteen minutes before recovering to a 0.24 percent gain one hour later, with the hourly range expanding only modestly to 0.52 percent from 0.34 percent beforehand.

The timing of the print, twenty-six days ahead of the next Federal Reserve decision, aligned with historical patterns in which PPI releases outside the two-week window produce similar median volatility of 2.05x. This instance's 2.14x outcome therefore tracked the circumstances rather than exceeding them. Across seventy PPI releases since 2021 the median volatility ratio stands at 2.08x, confirming that the observed move fell squarely within the established distribution.

Traders reviewing the next PPI release can note that proximity to a policy meeting has not historically altered Bitcoin's reaction magnitude under Clometrix measurement. The record shows comparable volatility whether the data arrives inside or outside the two-week pre-decision window, so positioning around that calendar feature alone has not produced a consistent edge in past episodes.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

60,211.17

62,729.11

24h Change

2517.94 (4.01%)

24h High

63,417.56

24h Low

60,087.64

24h Volume

23,710 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

11th October, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	61277.12	61277.13	61251.67	61272.76	-0.01%	0.04%	20 BTC
During	61272.76	61449.93	61272.75	61359.90	0.14%	0.29%	204 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	61179.99	61277.13	61179.99	61272.76	0.15%	0.16%	40 BTC
During	61272.76	61477.57	61272.75	61414.44	0.23%	0.33%	374 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	61199.91	61277.13	61160.00	61272.76	0.12%	0.19%	88 BTC
During	61272.76	61477.57	61272.75	61287.14	0.02%	0.33%	438 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	61211.65	61277.13	61160.00	61272.76	0.10%	0.19%	134 BTC
During	61272.76	61477.57	61160.00	61200.07	-0.12%	0.52%	528 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	61174.88	61302.90	61129.72	61272.76	0.16%	0.28%	359 BTC
During	61272.76	61477.57	61160.00	61379.00	0.17%	0.52%	672 BTC

1 Hour
Before	61092.81	61302.90	61092.80	61272.76	0.29%	0.34%	567 BTC
During	61272.76	61477.57	61160.00	61419.99	0.24%	0.52%	1,012 BTC

2 Hours
Before	61019.99	61302.90	61002.49	61272.76	0.41%	0.49%	1,112 BTC
During	61272.76	61950.00	61160.00	61779.89	0.82%	1.28%	3,397 BTC

4 Hours
Before	60719.63	61302.90	60650.44	61272.76	0.90%	1.06%	2,870 BTC
During	61272.76	62450.00	61160.00	62287.67	1.63%	2.07%	7,351 BTC

6 Hours
Before	60740.01	61302.90	60650.44	61272.76	0.87%	1.06%	4,317 BTC
During	61272.76	62973.47	61160.00	62741.52	2.34%	2.88%	10,335 BTC

8 Hours
Before	60211.17	60925.16	60087.64	60719.64	0.84%	1.37%	4,390 BTC
During	60719.63	62450.00	60650.44	62287.67	2.52%	2.88%	10,221 BTC

12 Hours
Before	60211.17	61302.90	60087.64	61272.76	1.73%	1.98%	7,260 BTC
During	61272.76	63417.56	61160.00	62729.11	2.32%	3.56%	16,450 BTC