BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 15th June 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 15 June 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Producer Price Index came in at 1.0% for May 2021, against 1.1% in April 2021. Producer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles and Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.97x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.80x, against a typical 2.30x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $40,069.92 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.41% lower, and an hour later 0.49% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.45% of its price, against 1.25% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one came out the day before the Federal Reserve's 16 June rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.97x compares with 2.18x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin showed almost no response to the 15 June 2021 PPI release and the three other indicators published alongside it. Its volatility ratio reached only 0.97x in the quarter hour after the figures, well below the 2.08x median recorded for PPI events since 2021. Volume stayed equally subdued at 0.80x against a typical 2.30x. The market therefore registered no material shift in either measure.

The release arrived the day before the Federal Reserve's June policy decision. PPI releases in that window have historically produced a median volatility ratio of 2.18x. This instance fell to 0.97x, confirming the reaction stayed muted even by the standards of pre-Fed timing. Bitcoin traded at $40,069.92 on the print and moved just 0.41 percent lower fifteen minutes later.

The hour after the release brought a 1.45 percent high-to-low range, only modestly wider than the 1.25 percent range seen in the preceding hour. For a trader reviewing the record, the episode illustrates that even a cluster of macro releases on the eve of a rate decision can leave Bitcoin's price action essentially unchanged when the data themselves contain few surprises.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

40,716.69

Close

39,969.96

24h Change

-746.73 (-1.87%)

24h High

41,330.00

24h Low

39,506.40

24h Volume

79,041 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

15th June, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time Open High Low Close Change Amplitude Volume
 
1 Minute
Before40051.1440071.6140028.8740067.460.04%0.11%31 BTC
During40069.9240069.9340035.2040039.21-0.08%0.09%24 BTC
 
5 Minutes
Before40091.0240093.3440027.7940067.46-0.06%0.16%131 BTC
During40069.9240069.9340000.0040011.24-0.15%0.17%142 BTC
 
10 Minutes
Before40088.3040124.3240027.7940067.46-0.05%0.24%258 BTC
During40069.9240069.9339925.0039956.70-0.28%0.36%327 BTC
 
15 Minutes
Before40159.7840172.3440027.7940067.46-0.23%0.36%466 BTC
During40069.9240069.9339869.0039903.72-0.42%0.50%512 BTC
 
30 Minutes
Before39839.9040172.3439751.3140067.460.57%1.05%1,532 BTC
During40069.9240450.0039869.0040417.840.86%1.44%2,125 BTC
 
1 Hour
Before39964.8140172.3439672.8640067.460.26%1.24%3,133 BTC
During40069.9240450.0039869.0040266.560.49%1.44%3,548 BTC
 
2 Hours
Before40024.9240172.3439672.8640067.460.11%1.24%5,619 BTC
During40069.9240450.0039869.0040021.00-0.12%1.44%6,690 BTC
 
4 Hours
Before40298.1340298.1339531.0040067.46-0.58%1.90%14,246 BTC
During40069.9240450.0039720.0040074.060.01%1.80%12,354 BTC
 
6 Hours
Before40451.5440457.9239531.0040067.46-0.96%2.29%18,681 BTC
During40069.9241330.0039720.0041154.882.64%3.90%23,779 BTC
 
8 Hours
Before40716.6940721.0739856.6040298.12-1.04%2.12%19,141 BTC
During40298.1340450.0039531.0040074.06-0.56%2.27%26,600 BTC
 
12 Hours
Before40716.6940721.0739531.0040067.46-1.62%2.92%33,387 BTC
During40069.9241330.0039506.4039969.96-0.25%4.41%45,654 BTC

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