BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 16th February 2024

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 16 February 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.4% for January 2024, against 0.0% in December 2023. Producer prices are rising again, after a fall.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $52,341.09 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.11% lower, and an hour later 0.32% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.21% of its price, against 0.46% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.62x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.94x, against a typical 2.30x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.62x compares with 2.05x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.

What it means

Bitcoin declined 0.11% in the fifteen minutes after the January PPI print and 0.32% within the hour. The hourly high-to-low range reached 1.21% of spot, up from 0.46% in the prior hour. Clometrix measured a volatility ratio of 1.62x against the 2.08x median recorded across seventy prior PPI releases since 2021. Volume expanded 1.94x, also below the 2.30x typical reading.

Ordinary Reaction Relative to Record

Clometrix classifies the move as ordinary for this event. The release arrived thirty-two days before the March Federal Open Market Committee decision, outside the two-week pre-meeting window that has produced a 2.18x median volatility ratio. Against the 2.05x median for non-proximate releases, the 1.62x outcome sits below what the timing alone would suggest. The record supplies no basis for expecting larger or smaller reactions from the same distance to policy meetings.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

52,041.76

Close

51,930.00

24h Change

-111.76 (-0.22%)

24h High

52,572.08

24h Low

51,566.00

24h Volume

36,740 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

16th February, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time Open High Low Close Change Amplitude Volume
 
1 Minute
Before52321.4852341.1052317.6652341.100.04%0.04%19 BTC
During52341.0952341.1052212.5052229.93-0.21%0.25%63 BTC
 
5 Minutes
Before52360.0052361.1052282.0052341.10-0.04%0.15%115 BTC
During52341.0952341.1052130.1652181.08-0.31%0.40%282 BTC
 
10 Minutes
Before52322.9252361.1052281.1052341.100.03%0.15%263 BTC
During52341.0952341.1052130.1652206.00-0.26%0.40%423 BTC
 
15 Minutes
Before52374.2152449.9952281.1052341.10-0.06%0.32%407 BTC
During52341.0952349.8952130.1652285.14-0.11%0.42%563 BTC
 
30 Minutes
Before52383.4552450.0052281.1052341.10-0.08%0.32%895 BTC
During52341.0952494.0052130.1652464.000.23%0.69%1,172 BTC
 
1 Hour
Before52209.9252450.0052209.9252341.100.25%0.46%1,681 BTC
During52341.0952572.0851940.0052172.26-0.32%1.20%2,708 BTC
 
2 Hours
Before52270.1252450.0052103.2152341.100.14%0.66%3,512 BTC
During52341.0952572.0851592.8851828.76-0.99%1.86%7,068 BTC
 
4 Hours
Before51777.3852450.0051760.5852341.101.08%1.31%8,056 BTC
During52341.0952572.0851592.8851974.45-0.71%1.86%10,609 BTC
 
6 Hours
Before51944.4252450.0051566.0052341.100.76%1.69%12,814 BTC
During52341.0952572.0851592.8851893.09-0.86%1.86%12,314 BTC
 
8 Hours
Before52041.7652343.2851566.0051777.38-0.51%1.48%11,975 BTC
During51777.3852572.0851592.8851974.450.38%1.86%18,665 BTC
 
12 Hours
Before52041.7652450.0051566.0052341.100.57%1.69%20,030 BTC
During52341.0952572.0851592.8851930.00-0.79%1.86%16,709 BTC

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