BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 14th October 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 14 October 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.5% for September 2021, against 0.9% in August 2021. Producer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $57,730.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.3% lower, and an hour later 0.16% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.93% of its price, against 1.07% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.90x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.74x, against a typical 2.30x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.90x compares with 2.05x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the October 2021 PPI release and the data that arrived with it. The price stood at $57,730 when the figures printed, then declined 0.3 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.16 percent after one hour. Its hourly range narrowed slightly to 0.93 percent from 1.07 percent beforehand. Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 1.90x against the 2.08x median for PPI since 2021, and a volume ratio of 1.74x against the usual 2.30x.

The outcome aligned with the release timing. It fell nineteen days before the next Federal Reserve decision, outside the two-week window in which PPI has produced a median volatility ratio of 2.18x. The observed 1.90x therefore matched the 2.05x median recorded for PPI releases at comparable distances from policy meetings. Because Core PPI, Initial Claims and Continued Claims printed simultaneously, the measured move reflects the combined impact rather than PPI alone.

Traders can note that PPI prints have shown limited sensitivity to Fed-meeting proximity. Across seventy releases the median volatility ratio remains 2.08x, and the present case stayed close to that benchmark despite the slower 0.5 percent print versus 0.9 percent the prior month. The record therefore supplies a stable reference for assessing future prints that land well clear of policy decisions.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

57,316.60

Close

57,134.78

24h Change

-181.82 (-0.32%)

24h High

58,532.54

24h Low

56,818.05

24h Volume

42,905 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

14th October, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time Open High Low Close Change Amplitude Volume
 
1 Minute
Before57707.6957730.0157693.9957730.000.04%0.06%16 BTC
During57730.0057730.0157670.0257673.59-0.10%0.10%18 BTC
 
5 Minutes
Before57871.9457874.6457693.9957730.00-0.25%0.31%155 BTC
During57730.0057730.0157600.0057642.08-0.15%0.23%180 BTC
 
10 Minutes
Before57660.1257899.9957603.5957730.000.12%0.51%379 BTC
During57730.0057730.0157557.3157578.28-0.26%0.30%293 BTC
 
15 Minutes
Before57769.3157899.9957603.5957730.00-0.07%0.51%533 BTC
During57730.0057986.2057550.0257558.00-0.30%0.75%631 BTC
 
30 Minutes
Before57622.4257899.9957397.2557730.000.19%0.87%1,235 BTC
During57730.0057986.2057450.0057563.02-0.29%0.92%1,093 BTC
 
1 Hour
Before58000.0058017.5757397.2557730.00-0.47%1.07%2,248 BTC
During57730.0057986.2057450.0057639.13-0.16%0.92%1,723 BTC
 
2 Hours
Before57611.2258150.0057397.2557730.000.21%1.29%4,340 BTC
During57730.0057986.2057300.0057549.24-0.31%1.18%3,522 BTC
 
4 Hours
Before57652.3858150.0057189.0057730.000.13%1.65%8,151 BTC
During57730.0057986.2056947.5957096.99-1.11%1.79%9,086 BTC
 
6 Hours
Before57911.8958150.0057189.0057730.00-0.32%1.65%11,198 BTC
During57730.0057986.2056818.0556949.28-1.37%2.01%11,376 BTC
 
8 Hours
Before57316.6058532.5457138.7257655.900.59%2.38%14,893 BTC
During57652.3858150.0056947.5957096.99-0.97%2.07%17,237 BTC
 
12 Hours
Before57316.6058532.5457138.7257730.000.72%2.38%23,044 BTC
During57730.0058086.9856818.0557134.78-1.04%2.18%19,861 BTC

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