Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.47x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.11x, against a typical 2.30x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $21,257.39 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.3% higher, and an hour later 0.68% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.14% of its price, against 0.36% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 18 January 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Producer Price Index came in at -0.3% for December 2022, against 0.3% in November 2022. Producer prices are falling, after a rise.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles and Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one came out 14 days before the Federal Reserve's 1 February rate decision. Its own ratio of 3.47x compares with 2.18x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the January 2023 PPI release. Its volatility ratio reached 3.47x against the 2.08x median recorded across 70 PPI prints since 2021, while volume expanded to 5.11x versus a typical 2.30x.
The release fell 14 days before the Federal Reserve's February meeting. Releases in that pre-decision window have produced a 2.18x median volatility ratio since 2021, so the 3.47x outcome exceeded what the timing alone would have suggested.
Price action aligned with the elevated ratios. Bitcoin stood at $21,257.39 at the 8:30 AM print, then rose 0.3 percent after fifteen minutes and 0.68 percent after one hour, with an hourly high-to-low range of 2.14 percent against 0.36 percent beforehand.
The December reading showed producer prices down 0.3 percent after a 0.3 percent increase in November. A trader reviewing the record would note that volatility at PPI releases has varied across years yet has shown no systematic difference tied solely to proximity to Federal Reserve decisions.
About Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
21,187.70Close
20,768.8524h Change
-418.85 (-2.02%)24h High
21,650.0024h Low
20,407.1524h Volume
352,136 BTCUS Producer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
18th January, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 21254.02 | 21263.60 | 21248.39 | 21256.96 | 0.01% | 0.07% | 181 BTC |
| During | 21257.39 | 21408.00 | 21256.83 | 21332.21 | 0.35% | 0.71% | 2,877 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21262.27 | 21274.93 | 21248.39 | 21256.96 | -0.02% | 0.12% | 707 BTC |
| During | 21257.39 | 21408.00 | 21196.03 | 21239.54 | -0.08% | 0.99% | 7,571 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21269.77 | 21279.00 | 21248.39 | 21256.96 | -0.06% | 0.14% | 1,143 BTC |
| During | 21257.39 | 21408.00 | 21196.03 | 21288.98 | 0.15% | 0.99% | 9,577 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21284.22 | 21300.14 | 21248.39 | 21256.96 | -0.13% | 0.24% | 2,002 BTC |
| During | 21257.39 | 21408.00 | 21196.03 | 21321.02 | 0.30% | 0.99% | 11,014 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21260.13 | 21300.14 | 21248.39 | 21256.96 | -0.01% | 0.24% | 4,061 BTC |
| During | 21257.39 | 21471.27 | 21196.03 | 21403.31 | 0.68% | 1.28% | 19,102 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 21229.50 | 21300.14 | 21223.14 | 21256.96 | 0.13% | 0.36% | 8,299 BTC |
| During | 21257.39 | 21650.00 | 21196.03 | 21400.95 | 0.67% | 2.10% | 37,901 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21209.88 | 21300.14 | 21196.04 | 21256.96 | 0.22% | 0.49% | 15,290 BTC |
| During | 21257.39 | 21650.00 | 21196.03 | 21432.14 | 0.82% | 2.10% | 60,063 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21252.80 | 21300.14 | 21164.51 | 21256.96 | 0.02% | 0.64% | 30,931 BTC |
| During | 21257.39 | 21650.00 | 20407.15 | 20922.85 | -1.60% | 5.74% | 161,125 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21266.25 | 21316.77 | 21151.00 | 21256.96 | -0.04% | 0.78% | 48,715 BTC |
| During | 21257.39 | 21650.00 | 20407.15 | 20963.35 | -1.40% | 5.74% | 193,954 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21187.70 | 21377.44 | 21151.00 | 21252.80 | 0.31% | 1.06% | 67,409 BTC |
| During | 21252.80 | 21650.00 | 20407.15 | 20922.85 | -1.58% | 5.74% | 192,056 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21187.70 | 21377.44 | 21151.00 | 21256.96 | 0.33% | 1.06% | 98,340 BTC |
| During | 21257.39 | 21650.00 | 20407.15 | 20768.85 | -2.35% | 5.74% | 253,797 BTC |
