Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 17 February 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Producer Price Index came in at 1.0% for January 2021, against 0.4% in December 2020. Producer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles and Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $50,769.63 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.29% higher, and an hour later 0.29% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.43% of its price, against 1.9% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.58x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.41x, against a typical 2.30x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.58x compares with 2.05x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.
What it means
Ordinary Reaction to PPI Data
Bitcoin registered an ordinary response to the January PPI release, posting a volatility ratio of 1.58x that fell short of the 2.08x median observed across 70 prior PPI prints since 2021. Volume rose only 1.41x against the event's typical 2.30x, confirming muted participation relative to the release's historical footprint. The price advanced 0.29 percent in both the first fifteen minutes and the first hour, while the hourly range actually narrowed from 1.9 percent before the print to 1.43 percent afterward.
The reading arrived bundled with retail sales, ex-autos retail sales and core PPI, so the measured ratios reflect the joint impact of the cluster rather than PPI alone. That grouping may have diluted any isolated signal from producer prices, which printed 1.0 percent month-over-month against 0.4 percent the prior month. The release also fell outside the two-week window ahead of the March FOMC decision, a period when PPI has historically produced comparable volatility ratios to non-Fed windows.
Against that backdrop the 1.58x volatility ratio sat below the 2.05x median recorded for PPI prints at similar distances from policy meetings. The outcome therefore aligned with the broader record that timing relative to the Fed has not materially altered Bitcoin's reaction magnitude to this event.
Traders preparing for the next PPI release can note that an ordinary outcome remains the central tendency, yet the data also show that simultaneous releases can compress the observed reaction below the standalone median. Monitoring whether future prints again coincide with retail sales or other high-impact figures will help calibrate expectations for volatility and volume around the eight-thirty release.
About Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
49,120.78Close
52,163.0324h Change
3042.25 (5.83%)24h High
52,618.7424h Low
49,106.7524h Volume
85,827 BTCUS Producer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
17th February, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 50679.33 | 50779.54 | 50661.79 | 50769.67 | 0.18% | 0.23% | 60 BTC |
| During | 50769.63 | 50877.54 | 50769.61 | 50824.29 | 0.11% | 0.21% | 61 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 50814.08 | 50891.23 | 50567.26 | 50769.67 | -0.09% | 0.64% | 417 BTC |
| During | 50769.63 | 50877.54 | 50542.30 | 50626.66 | -0.28% | 0.66% | 403 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 51033.15 | 51033.16 | 50567.26 | 50769.67 | -0.52% | 0.91% | 720 BTC |
| During | 50769.63 | 50877.54 | 50542.30 | 50777.90 | 0.02% | 0.66% | 678 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 50934.50 | 51041.22 | 50567.26 | 50769.67 | -0.32% | 0.93% | 958 BTC |
| During | 50769.63 | 51011.00 | 50542.30 | 50918.05 | 0.29% | 0.92% | 1,038 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 51039.56 | 51166.22 | 50567.26 | 50769.67 | -0.53% | 1.17% | 2,338 BTC |
| During | 50769.63 | 51234.00 | 50542.30 | 51149.96 | 0.74% | 1.35% | 1,894 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 51315.30 | 51530.00 | 50567.26 | 50769.67 | -1.07% | 1.87% | 4,849 BTC |
| During | 50769.63 | 51267.71 | 50542.30 | 50914.78 | 0.29% | 1.41% | 3,869 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 51400.01 | 51675.55 | 50567.26 | 50769.67 | -1.24% | 2.14% | 8,508 BTC |
| During | 50769.63 | 51633.17 | 50542.30 | 51270.01 | 0.98% | 2.11% | 8,005 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 51326.39 | 51678.36 | 50567.26 | 50769.67 | -1.10% | 2.15% | 16,299 BTC |
| During | 50769.63 | 51633.17 | 50542.30 | 51224.97 | 0.89% | 2.11% | 14,039 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 50596.84 | 51678.36 | 50530.49 | 50769.67 | 0.34% | 2.22% | 25,787 BTC |
| During | 50769.63 | 51837.16 | 50542.30 | 51806.86 | 2.00% | 2.50% | 18,541 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 49120.78 | 51480.00 | 49106.75 | 51326.39 | 4.30% | 4.61% | 33,669 BTC |
| During | 51326.39 | 51678.36 | 50542.30 | 51224.97 | -0.20% | 2.20% | 30,338 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 49120.78 | 51678.36 | 49106.75 | 50769.67 | 3.25% | 4.98% | 49,967 BTC |
| During | 50769.63 | 52618.74 | 50542.30 | 52163.03 | 2.67% | 3.95% | 35,860 BTC |
