BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 9th April 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 9 April 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.7% for March 2021, against 0.7% in February 2021. Producer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.18x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.59x, against a typical 2.30x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $58,485.51 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.07% lower, and an hour later 0.19% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.47% of its price, against 0.85% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.18x compares with 2.05x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the March 2021 PPI release, posting a volatility ratio of 1.18x that fell well below the 2.08x median recorded across PPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded only 1.59x against the 2.30x norm, leaving both measures beneath the 1.5x threshold that Clometrix associates with no material response. Price action stayed contained, with Bitcoin slipping 0.07 percent in the first fifteen minutes before recovering to a 0.19 percent gain an hour later, while the hourly range narrowed to 0.47 percent from 0.85 percent beforehand.

The print itself showed headline PPI holding at 0.7 percent month-over-month, matching February exactly. That outcome arrived alongside the core reading yet produced no visible shift in trading intensity, consistent with the classification of this episode as quiet.

The release fell outside the two-week window ahead of the April 28 Federal Reserve decision. Clometrix data indicate PPI events in comparable non-Fed periods have carried a median volatility ratio of 2.05x, so the 1.18x outcome registered lighter than the surrounding circumstances would have implied.

Traders reviewing the record may observe that PPI releases have occasionally produced muted Bitcoin moves even when producer prices continued to rise, underscoring that individual prints can deviate from the event median without altering the broader distribution of responses.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

58,192.60

58,113.55

24h Change

-79.05 (-0.14%)

24h High

58,894.90

24h Low

57,654.00

24h Volume

40,742 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

9th April, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	58528.04	58538.83	58485.50	58485.51	-0.07%	0.09%	35 BTC
During	58485.51	58485.51	58412.06	58429.53	-0.10%	0.13%	47 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	58578.62	58578.63	58485.50	58485.51	-0.16%	0.16%	177 BTC
During	58485.51	58554.13	58350.00	58486.59	0.00%	0.35%	242 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	58644.54	58644.55	58485.50	58485.51	-0.27%	0.27%	327 BTC
During	58485.51	58554.13	58350.00	58501.60	0.03%	0.35%	429 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	58686.20	58699.95	58485.50	58485.51	-0.34%	0.37%	524 BTC
During	58485.51	58554.13	58350.00	58444.74	-0.07%	0.35%	596 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	58527.20	58700.00	58400.00	58485.51	-0.07%	0.51%	1,198 BTC
During	58485.51	58554.13	58350.00	58504.18	0.03%	0.35%	1,093 BTC

1 Hour
Before	58735.98	58894.90	58400.00	58485.51	-0.43%	0.84%	2,764 BTC
During	58485.51	58626.72	58350.00	58596.68	0.19%	0.47%	1,974 BTC

2 Hours
Before	58570.94	58894.90	58369.82	58485.51	-0.15%	0.89%	5,252 BTC
During	58485.51	58783.47	58162.29	58212.30	-0.47%	1.06%	4,949 BTC

4 Hours
Before	57844.72	58894.90	57669.58	58485.51	1.10%	2.08%	9,963 BTC
During	58485.51	58783.47	57870.57	58074.12	-0.71%	1.55%	9,293 BTC

6 Hours
Before	58000.00	58894.90	57654.00	58485.51	0.83%	2.11%	13,073 BTC
During	58485.51	58783.47	57870.57	58358.46	-0.22%	1.55%	12,468 BTC

8 Hours
Before	58192.60	58419.45	57654.00	57844.71	-0.60%	1.31%	10,681 BTC
During	57844.72	58894.90	57669.58	58074.12	0.40%	2.08%	19,256 BTC

12 Hours
Before	58192.60	58894.90	57654.00	58485.51	0.50%	2.11%	20,644 BTC
During	58485.51	58783.47	57870.57	58113.55	-0.64%	1.55%	20,098 BTC