BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 15th May 2025

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 15 May 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Producer Price Index came in at -0.3% for April 2025, against -0.1% in March 2025. Producer prices are falling faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Core Producer Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $102,536.51 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.25% higher, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.4% of its price, against 0.4% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.51x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.62x, against a typical 2.30x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.51x compares with 2.05x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.

What it means

Bitcoin showed an ordinary reaction to the May 15 PPI release and the cluster of data that arrived with it. The volatility ratio reached 1.51x, below the 2.08x median recorded across 70 PPI prints since 2021. Volume rose to 2.62x against the 2.30x typical level, while the hour after the prints produced the same 0.4 percent high-to-low range seen in the hour before. Price stood at $102,536.51 at release, rose 0.25 percent within fifteen minutes, and finished the hour unchanged.

Multiple releases and timing

The measured move belongs to the simultaneous arrival of Retail Sales, Core PPI, Initial Claims and Continued Claims rather than PPI alone. This release fell 33 days before the June FOMC decision and therefore outside the two-week window where median PPI volatility has run 2.18x. Its own 1.51x ratio sits below the 2.05x median for non-Fed-window prints, confirming the subdued outcome relative to circumstances.

Traders watching the next PPI print can note that the event has produced a consistent median volatility ratio near 2.08x over seventy observations, with little difference tied to proximity to policy meetings. The latest outcome simply aligned with that established record rather than departing from it.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

103,768.24

103,742.01

24h Change

-26.23 (-0.03%)

24h High

104,192.70

24h Low

101,383.07

24h Volume

18,220 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

15th May, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	102527.95	102549.57	102527.94	102536.52	0.01%	0.02%	7 BTC
During	102536.51	102808.04	102428.00	102619.36	0.08%	0.37%	161 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	102498.38	102610.00	102498.38	102536.52	0.04%	0.11%	47 BTC
During	102536.51	102808.04	102428.00	102797.47	0.25%	0.37%	267 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	102413.17	102610.00	102341.95	102536.52	0.12%	0.26%	114 BTC
During	102536.51	102838.82	102428.00	102719.96	0.18%	0.40%	363 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	102300.93	102610.00	102283.22	102536.52	0.23%	0.32%	162 BTC
During	102536.51	102838.82	102428.00	102791.72	0.25%	0.40%	436 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	102371.62	102610.00	102271.58	102536.52	0.16%	0.33%	269 BTC
During	102536.51	102838.82	102428.00	102560.00	0.02%	0.40%	713 BTC

1 Hour
Before	102281.30	102610.00	102195.09	102536.52	0.25%	0.40%	559 BTC
During	102536.51	102838.82	102428.00	102582.23	0.04%	0.40%	901 BTC

2 Hours
Before	101906.34	102610.00	101600.00	102536.52	0.61%	0.98%	1,181 BTC
During	102536.51	102838.82	101569.84	102040.94	-0.49%	1.23%	2,323 BTC

4 Hours
Before	102055.98	102610.00	101500.00	102536.52	0.47%	1.08%	2,611 BTC
During	102536.51	103380.96	101383.07	103168.10	0.61%	1.93%	4,479 BTC

6 Hours
Before	102634.92	102649.59	101500.00	102536.52	-0.10%	1.12%	3,953 BTC
During	102536.51	104192.70	101383.07	103491.85	0.92%	2.70%	6,873 BTC

8 Hours
Before	103768.24	103866.51	101724.17	102055.98	-1.68%	2.06%	4,260 BTC
During	102055.98	103380.96	101383.07	103168.10	1.08%	1.93%	7,090 BTC

12 Hours
Before	103768.24	103866.51	101500.00	102536.52	-1.20%	2.28%	6,871 BTC
During	102536.51	104192.70	101383.07	103742.01	1.16%	2.70%	11,349 BTC