BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 15th November 2022

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.96x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.34x, against a typical 2.30x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $16,922.52 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.45% higher, and an hour later 0.17% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.55% of its price, against 0.72% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 15 November 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.3% for October 2022, against 0.3% in September 2022. Producer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.96x compares with 2.05x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the November 2022 PPI release when measured against the event's own record. Volatility reached 2.96x the baseline quarter-hour level, above the 2.08x median across 70 PPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 4.34x, well clear of the 2.30x typical reading.

The release fell outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, landing 28 days before the December 2022 meeting. Releases in comparable timing have produced a 2.05x median volatility ratio, so the observed 2.96x reading exceeded what the calendar position alone would indicate. Bitcoin traded at $16,922.52 on the print, moved 0.45% higher within fifteen minutes and 0.17% higher after one hour, while the hourly range widened to 1.55% from 0.72% beforehand.

Traders following subsequent PPI releases can observe that the event has occasionally generated larger price action even when detached from near-term policy meetings. This instance showed that individual outcomes can surpass the median effect recorded for releases at similar distances from FOMC decisions, underscoring the value of monitoring each print directly rather than relying on timing patterns alone.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

16,638.30

16,812.57

24h Change

174.27 (1.04%)

24h High

17,134.69

24h Low

16,614.61

24h Volume

281,046 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

15th November, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	16876.08	16931.44	16872.43	16919.70	0.26%	0.35%	584 BTC
During	16922.52	17100.00	16915.89	17076.35	0.90%	1.08%	2,767 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	16854.71	16931.44	16848.32	16919.70	0.38%	0.49%	1,154 BTC
During	16922.52	17134.69	16915.89	17060.94	0.81%	1.28%	5,739 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	16868.42	16931.44	16848.32	16919.70	0.30%	0.49%	1,818 BTC
During	16922.52	17134.69	16915.89	16994.93	0.43%	1.28%	9,165 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	16876.27	16931.44	16846.00	16919.70	0.26%	0.50%	2,635 BTC
During	16922.52	17134.69	16915.89	16998.61	0.45%	1.28%	10,793 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	16835.31	16931.44	16823.00	16919.70	0.50%	0.64%	5,088 BTC
During	16922.52	17134.69	16900.00	17012.53	0.53%	1.37%	15,729 BTC

1 Hour
Before	16846.01	16931.44	16810.12	16919.70	0.44%	0.72%	9,323 BTC
During	16922.52	17134.69	16872.03	16951.95	0.17%	1.53%	22,457 BTC

2 Hours
Before	16764.88	16931.44	16730.00	16919.70	0.92%	1.19%	18,844 BTC
During	16922.52	17134.69	16815.08	16959.90	0.22%	1.87%	39,625 BTC

4 Hours
Before	16856.30	16969.02	16708.31	16919.70	0.37%	1.54%	44,244 BTC
During	16922.52	17134.69	16815.08	17041.66	0.70%	1.87%	68,642 BTC

6 Hours
Before	16818.85	16989.00	16708.31	16919.70	0.60%	1.65%	67,442 BTC
During	16922.52	17134.69	16614.61	16785.72	-0.81%	3.04%	104,908 BTC

8 Hours
Before	16638.30	16989.00	16619.34	16856.15	1.29%	2.18%	81,896 BTC
During	16856.30	17134.69	16708.31	17041.66	1.09%	2.49%	112,886 BTC

12 Hours
Before	16638.30	16989.00	16619.34	16919.70	1.66%	2.18%	126,140 BTC
During	16922.52	17134.69	16614.61	16812.57	-0.65%	3.04%	154,905 BTC