BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 15th January 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 15 January 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.4% for December 2020, against 0.1% in November 2020. Producer prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles and Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.05x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.95x, against a typical 2.30x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $37,484.23 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.66% higher, and an hour later 0.73% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.96% of its price, against 1.84% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one came out 12 days before the Federal Reserve's 27 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.05x compares with 2.18x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the January 2021 PPI release, with a volatility ratio of 1.05x and volume ratio of 0.95x. Both figures fell below the 1.5x threshold that marks any meaningful response, leaving price action essentially unchanged from an ordinary quarter hour on the same day. The coin traded at $37,484.23 on the print and posted a 1.96 percent high-to-low range in the following hour against 1.84 percent in the hour before.

That muted outcome stands out against the event's longer record. PPI releases since 2021 have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.08x for Bitcoin, while the 29 releases that arrived inside the two-week window before a Federal Reserve decision carried a median of 2.18x. This release landed 12 days ahead of the 27 January rate decision yet delivered only half the typical move.

Traders reviewing the record may note that timing alone does not guarantee elevated volatility as releases clustered near policy meetings have historically moved Bitcoin in line with the broader PPI sample, yet individual prints can still fall well short of that median when the surprise component remains modest. The January 2021 episode supplies one such instance in which the market simply absorbed the data without measurable repricing.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

39,461.55

37,391.10

24h Change

-2070.45 (-5.54%)

24h High

39,600.00

24h Low

34,408.00

24h Volume

119,595 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

15th January, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	37575.93	37582.52	37434.28	37471.70	-0.28%	0.39%	48 BTC
During	37484.23	37535.02	37443.19	37535.02	0.14%	0.24%	34 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	37407.91	37603.44	37401.00	37471.70	0.17%	0.54%	264 BTC
During	37484.23	37649.81	37443.19	37606.41	0.32%	0.55%	253 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	37284.68	37756.76	37251.11	37471.70	0.50%	1.34%	1,209 BTC
During	37484.23	37744.00	37364.63	37723.84	0.64%	1.01%	679 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	37651.92	37756.76	37251.11	37471.70	-0.48%	1.34%	1,815 BTC
During	37484.23	37751.03	37364.63	37732.69	0.66%	1.02%	900 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	37770.64	37888.88	37251.11	37471.70	-0.80%	1.68%	2,859 BTC
During	37484.23	37751.03	37364.63	37683.94	0.53%	1.02%	1,699 BTC

1 Hour
Before	37426.73	37888.88	37200.00	37471.70	0.12%	1.82%	6,454 BTC
During	37484.23	37786.74	37050.50	37210.31	-0.74%	1.95%	4,114 BTC

2 Hours
Before	38167.40	38369.54	37200.00	37471.70	-1.86%	3.05%	10,538 BTC
During	37484.23	37786.74	36365.00	36806.93	-1.84%	3.76%	12,200 BTC

4 Hours
Before	38453.97	38780.00	37200.00	37471.70	-2.62%	4.07%	15,961 BTC
During	37484.23	37786.74	34408.00	35998.97	-4.13%	8.94%	41,248 BTC

6 Hours
Before	38406.41	38780.00	37200.00	37471.70	-2.49%	4.07%	22,164 BTC
During	37484.23	37786.74	34408.00	35810.95	-4.67%	8.94%	53,035 BTC

8 Hours
Before	39461.55	39600.00	37554.94	38453.97	-2.62%	5.16%	26,969 BTC
During	38453.97	38780.00	34408.00	35998.97	-6.82%	11.27%	57,209 BTC

12 Hours
Before	39461.55	39600.00	37200.00	37471.70	-5.31%	6.06%	42,930 BTC
During	37484.23	37786.74	34408.00	37391.10	-0.25%	8.94%	76,665 BTC