ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 29th February 2024

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 February 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 1.4% for January 2024, against 0.4% in December 2023. Personal income is rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $3,457.40 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.61% higher, and an hour later 0.78% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.99% of its price, against 0.95% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.68x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.71x, against a typical 2.15x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.68x compares with 1.77x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.

What it means

Ethereum registered an ordinary reaction to the Personal Income release and the data that arrived alongside it. Volatility reached 1.68x its normal quarter-hour level, close to the 1.80x median recorded across 69 Personal Income prints since 2021. Volume expanded by 1.71x, below the 2.15x typical for the event.

The price stood at $3,457.40 at the 8:30 AM release. It rose 0.61 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.78 percent after one hour. The high-to-low range in that hour reached 0.99 percent of spot, little changed from the 0.95 percent observed beforehand. Because the print coincided with PCE, core PCE and jobless claims, the measured response reflects their joint arrival.

The release fell outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision. Across the full record, Personal Income events inside that window have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x, compared with 1.77x at other times. This instance's 1.68x ratio aligned with the pattern observed for releases at comparable distances from policy meetings.

Traders watching the next Personal Income print may therefore expect volatility and volume effects near the historical medians unless the release clusters with larger surprises or falls inside the pre-Fed fortnight.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

3,415.31

3,379.28

24h Change

-36.03 (-1.07%)

24h High

3,522.81

24h Low

3,300.00

24h Volume

707,577 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

29th February, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	3455.02	3457.40	3446.47	3457.39	0.07%	0.32%	1,143 ETH
During	3457.40	3469.71	3457.39	3469.32	0.34%	0.36%	896 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	3458.11	3460.00	3446.47	3457.39	-0.02%	0.39%	2,446 ETH
During	3457.40	3477.51	3457.39	3473.72	0.47%	0.58%	3,832 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	3471.30	3471.30	3446.47	3457.39	-0.40%	0.72%	5,667 ETH
During	3457.40	3481.00	3457.39	3480.79	0.67%	0.68%	6,307 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	3471.80	3474.90	3446.47	3457.39	-0.42%	0.82%	6,903 ETH
During	3457.40	3491.73	3457.39	3478.66	0.61%	0.98%	10,446 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	3464.61	3479.40	3446.47	3457.39	-0.21%	0.95%	12,230 ETH
During	3457.40	3491.73	3457.39	3478.58	0.61%	0.98%	15,123 ETH

1 Hour
Before	3474.06	3479.40	3446.47	3457.39	-0.48%	0.95%	25,946 ETH
During	3457.40	3491.73	3457.39	3484.36	0.77%	0.98%	26,397 ETH

2 Hours
Before	3487.01	3522.81	3445.42	3457.39	-0.86%	2.20%	94,552 ETH
During	3457.40	3497.24	3450.90	3480.78	0.67%	1.33%	61,149 ETH

4 Hours
Before	3453.91	3522.81	3442.52	3457.39	0.10%	2.28%	134,631 ETH
During	3457.40	3497.24	3396.40	3425.00	-0.95%	2.88%	125,365 ETH

6 Hours
Before	3456.76	3522.81	3442.52	3457.39	0.02%	2.28%	212,692 ETH
During	3457.40	3497.24	3351.00	3382.77	-2.21%	4.18%	205,808 ETH

8 Hours
Before	3415.31	3500.25	3389.96	3453.90	1.12%	3.15%	230,203 ETH
During	3453.91	3522.81	3396.40	3425.00	-0.84%	3.59%	259,996 ETH

12 Hours
Before	3415.31	3522.81	3389.96	3457.39	1.22%	3.77%	364,834 ETH
During	3457.40	3497.24	3300.00	3379.28	-2.31%	5.64%	342,743 ETH