Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 3.52x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.53x, against a typical 2.15x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,467.01 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.37% lower, and an hour later 0.59% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.22% of its price, against 0.52% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 June 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for May 2024, against 0.1% in April 2024. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 3.52x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Strong Reaction Beyond Timing Norms
Ethereum registered a strong reaction to the 28 June Personal Income release, posting a volatility ratio of 3.52x against the 1.80x median recorded across 69 Personal Income events since 2021. Volume expanded to 5.53x normal levels, well above the 2.15x typical benchmark. The move coincided with the simultaneous release of PCE at 0.0% and Core PCE at 0.1% for May.
It fell 0.37% within fifteen minutes and 0.59% within one hour, while its high-to-low range reached 1.22% of price in the hour after the prints versus 0.52% in the prior hour. The release itself showed Personal Income rising 0.3% month-over-month in May, up from 0.1% in April.
This outcome occurred 32 days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum. Across the full record the event type has produced only modest median movement. Traders preparing for the next Personal Income print may note that releases arriving with larger-than-usual income gains and bundled inflation data can generate outsized volatility even when distant from policy meetings.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,442.37Close
3,385.6724h Change
-56.70 (-1.67%)24h High
3,487.7024h Low
3,365.2224h Volume
222,075 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
28th June, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3464.66 | 3467.88 | 3464.31 | 3467.01 | 0.07% | 0.10% | 742 ETH |
| During | 3467.01 | 3473.21 | 3442.57 | 3462.85 | -0.12% | 0.88% | 4,086 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3457.19 | 3467.88 | 3455.15 | 3467.01 | 0.28% | 0.37% | 1,527 ETH |
| During | 3467.01 | 3473.21 | 3442.57 | 3456.01 | -0.32% | 0.88% | 7,129 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3461.62 | 3467.88 | 3455.15 | 3467.01 | 0.16% | 0.37% | 3,393 ETH |
| During | 3467.01 | 3473.21 | 3442.57 | 3463.00 | -0.12% | 0.88% | 8,213 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3456.02 | 3467.88 | 3454.07 | 3467.01 | 0.32% | 0.40% | 6,930 ETH |
| During | 3467.01 | 3473.21 | 3442.57 | 3454.06 | -0.37% | 0.88% | 9,275 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3452.79 | 3467.88 | 3450.00 | 3467.01 | 0.41% | 0.52% | 9,387 ETH |
| During | 3467.01 | 3473.21 | 3438.28 | 3440.48 | -0.77% | 1.01% | 12,157 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3457.46 | 3467.88 | 3450.00 | 3467.01 | 0.28% | 0.52% | 12,219 ETH |
| During | 3467.01 | 3473.21 | 3431.05 | 3446.66 | -0.59% | 1.21% | 16,887 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3446.37 | 3467.88 | 3443.16 | 3467.01 | 0.60% | 0.71% | 20,699 ETH |
| During | 3467.01 | 3476.73 | 3423.01 | 3430.00 | -1.08% | 1.55% | 36,450 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3435.26 | 3467.88 | 3428.34 | 3467.01 | 0.92% | 1.14% | 32,002 ETH |
| During | 3467.01 | 3476.73 | 3395.92 | 3406.38 | -1.78% | 2.32% | 64,613 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3452.51 | 3467.88 | 3420.24 | 3467.01 | 0.42% | 1.37% | 53,717 ETH |
| During | 3467.01 | 3476.73 | 3373.04 | 3384.50 | -2.44% | 2.98% | 89,472 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3442.37 | 3487.70 | 3420.24 | 3435.27 | -0.21% | 1.93% | 68,146 ETH |
| During | 3435.26 | 3476.73 | 3395.92 | 3406.38 | -0.85% | 2.32% | 96,615 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3442.37 | 3487.70 | 3420.24 | 3467.01 | 0.71% | 1.93% | 100,148 ETH |
| During | 3467.01 | 3476.73 | 3365.22 | 3385.67 | -2.40% | 3.21% | 121,927 ETH |
