BTC Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 1st October 2020

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 1 October 2020 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at -3.0% for August 2020, against 1.3% in July 2020. Personal income is falling, after a rise.

It arrived at the same moment as Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.10x, against 2.09x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.38x, against a typical 2.55x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $10,872.43 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.15% higher, and an hour later 0.05% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.33% of its price, against 0.44% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.10x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.