Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 July 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.2% for June 2024, against 0.3% in May 2024. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,251.67 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.48% lower, and an hour later 0.3% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.78% of its price, against 0.37% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.77x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.24x, against a typical 2.15x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 31 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.77x compares with 1.86x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ethereum registered an ordinary reaction to the Personal Income release. The volatility ratio reached 1.77x in the quarter hour after the data, nearly identical to the 1.80x median recorded across 69 Personal Income prints since 2021. Volume rose only 1.24x against a typical 2.15x, confirming subdued trading interest. Price fell 0.48 percent in the first fifteen minutes from the $3,251.67 level and 0.3 percent after one hour, while the hourly range expanded to 0.78 percent from 0.37 percent beforehand.
It also landed five days before the Federal Reserve's 31 July decision. Historical data show Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a policy meeting have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, close to the 1.77x observed here.
Clometrix therefore classifies the move as ordinary for this event. Traders watching the next Personal Income print can note that proximity to a rate decision has not materially altered Ethereum's typical response in the record since 2021, while the joint arrival of consumption figures remains the more relevant context for volatility assessment.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,180.57Close
3,267.0124h Change
86.44 (2.65%)24h High
3,286.3624h Low
3,172.3724h Volume
255,313 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
26th July, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3250.00 | 3252.20 | 3249.99 | 3251.67 | 0.05% | 0.07% | 102 ETH |
| During | 3251.67 | 3255.28 | 3245.20 | 3245.60 | -0.19% | 0.31% | 501 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3248.65 | 3252.20 | 3248.64 | 3251.67 | 0.09% | 0.11% | 355 ETH |
| During | 3251.67 | 3255.28 | 3238.89 | 3244.76 | -0.21% | 0.50% | 1,477 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3243.41 | 3252.20 | 3243.25 | 3251.67 | 0.25% | 0.28% | 1,106 ETH |
| During | 3251.67 | 3255.28 | 3238.89 | 3243.93 | -0.24% | 0.50% | 2,051 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3249.58 | 3252.20 | 3242.48 | 3251.67 | 0.06% | 0.30% | 1,854 ETH |
| During | 3251.67 | 3255.28 | 3236.04 | 3236.20 | -0.48% | 0.59% | 2,510 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3246.87 | 3252.20 | 3242.48 | 3251.67 | 0.15% | 0.30% | 3,448 ETH |
| During | 3251.67 | 3255.28 | 3230.00 | 3241.99 | -0.30% | 0.78% | 4,411 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3241.25 | 3252.20 | 3240.24 | 3251.67 | 0.32% | 0.37% | 6,730 ETH |
| During | 3251.67 | 3255.28 | 3230.00 | 3241.79 | -0.30% | 0.78% | 7,635 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3248.06 | 3252.20 | 3234.43 | 3251.67 | 0.11% | 0.55% | 14,189 ETH |
| During | 3251.67 | 3271.14 | 3230.00 | 3241.44 | -0.32% | 1.26% | 32,961 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3253.05 | 3263.76 | 3234.43 | 3251.67 | -0.04% | 0.90% | 34,502 ETH |
| During | 3251.67 | 3271.14 | 3221.43 | 3261.25 | 0.29% | 1.52% | 57,052 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3263.00 | 3276.00 | 3234.43 | 3251.67 | -0.35% | 1.27% | 61,184 ETH |
| During | 3251.67 | 3271.14 | 3221.43 | 3251.29 | -0.01% | 1.52% | 67,509 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3180.57 | 3276.00 | 3172.37 | 3253.05 | 2.23% | 3.16% | 121,501 ETH |
| During | 3253.05 | 3271.14 | 3221.43 | 3261.25 | 0.25% | 1.52% | 91,554 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3180.57 | 3276.00 | 3172.37 | 3251.67 | 2.19% | 3.16% | 156,003 ETH |
| During | 3251.67 | 3286.36 | 3221.43 | 3267.01 | 0.47% | 1.98% | 99,310 ETH |
