ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 23rd December 2020

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 23 December 2020 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at -0.8% for November 2020, against 0.0% in October 2020. Personal income is falling faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.82x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.93x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $617.41 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.32% lower, and an hour later 1.67% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.26% of its price, against 1.94% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.82x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.