Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 October 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for September 2024, against 0.1% in August 2024. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.76x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.90x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,635.65 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.05% higher, and an hour later 0.46% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.79% of its price, against 0.45% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 7 days before the Federal Reserve's 7 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.76x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Subdued Volatility Despite Pre-Fed Window
Ethereum recorded a quiet reaction to the 31 October 2024 Personal Income release. Volatility reached just 0.76x in the quarter hour after the print, against the 1.80x typical level for this event since 2021. Volume stayed near unchanged at 0.90x versus the usual 2.15x. Under the 1.5x threshold the market registered no material response.
Price movement stayed narrow. Ethereum traded at $2,635.65 at the moment of release. It advanced 0.05 percent fifteen minutes later and stood 0.46 percent lower after one hour. The high-to-low range in that hour measured 0.79 percent of price, up from 0.45 percent in the prior hour.
The release arrived seven days before the Federal Reserve decision scheduled for 7 November. Personal Income prints in the two-week window before such decisions have shown a median volatility ratio of 1.86x since 2021, compared with 1.77x at other times. This instance produced 0.76x, falling short of the pattern for releases with similar timing. A trader may observe that proximity to a policy meeting does not ensure elevated volatility on every occasion.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,663.74Close
2,529.6424h Change
-134.10 (-5.30%)24h High
2,669.0024h Low
2,503.0024h Volume
405,325 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
31st October, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2636.22 | 2636.33 | 2635.21 | 2635.67 | -0.02% | 0.04% | 189 ETH |
| During | 2635.65 | 2636.80 | 2633.03 | 2633.61 | -0.08% | 0.14% | 729 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2633.91 | 2639.18 | 2630.66 | 2635.67 | 0.07% | 0.32% | 918 ETH |
| During | 2635.65 | 2639.50 | 2632.21 | 2638.02 | 0.09% | 0.28% | 1,586 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2631.79 | 2639.18 | 2628.65 | 2635.67 | 0.15% | 0.40% | 1,731 ETH |
| During | 2635.65 | 2639.60 | 2632.21 | 2636.70 | 0.04% | 0.28% | 2,269 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2636.40 | 2639.18 | 2628.65 | 2635.67 | -0.03% | 0.40% | 2,923 ETH |
| During | 2635.65 | 2639.60 | 2632.21 | 2637.01 | 0.05% | 0.28% | 2,585 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2638.82 | 2640.42 | 2628.65 | 2635.67 | -0.12% | 0.45% | 6,557 ETH |
| During | 2635.65 | 2641.00 | 2632.21 | 2638.78 | 0.12% | 0.33% | 4,951 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2633.40 | 2640.42 | 2628.65 | 2635.67 | 0.09% | 0.45% | 11,070 ETH |
| During | 2635.65 | 2641.00 | 2620.21 | 2623.62 | -0.46% | 0.79% | 11,382 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2630.23 | 2648.50 | 2627.01 | 2635.67 | 0.21% | 0.81% | 30,200 ETH |
| During | 2635.65 | 2641.00 | 2562.82 | 2566.81 | -2.68% | 2.96% | 72,257 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2632.08 | 2648.50 | 2625.26 | 2635.67 | 0.14% | 0.88% | 49,255 ETH |
| During | 2635.65 | 2641.00 | 2541.23 | 2551.66 | -3.29% | 3.78% | 146,894 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2644.62 | 2648.80 | 2625.26 | 2635.67 | -0.34% | 0.89% | 69,598 ETH |
| During | 2635.65 | 2641.00 | 2512.00 | 2523.40 | -4.45% | 4.88% | 194,816 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2663.74 | 2669.00 | 2627.20 | 2632.07 | -1.20% | 1.57% | 79,548 ETH |
| During | 2632.08 | 2648.50 | 2541.23 | 2551.66 | -3.15% | 4.05% | 196,149 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2663.74 | 2669.00 | 2625.26 | 2635.67 | -1.07% | 1.64% | 128,803 ETH |
| During | 2635.65 | 2641.00 | 2503.00 | 2529.64 | -4.19% | 5.23% | 276,523 ETH |
