Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 1 October 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for August 2021, against 1.1% in July 2021. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,261.39 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.97% lower, and an hour later 0.97% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.45% of its price, against 1.55% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.29x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.28x, against a typical 2.15x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.29x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ordinary Volatility on a Joint Release
Ethereum traded at $3,261.39 at the 8:30 AM release and fell 0.97% within fifteen minutes, holding that level through the first hour. The high-to-low range in that hour measured 1.45% of price, little changed from the 1.55% range seen beforehand. Volatility reached 2.29x the day's baseline quarter-hour level while volume reached 3.28x, figures that sit close to the event medians of 1.80x and 2.15x.
The print arrived together with PCE at 0.4% and core PCE at 0.3% for August, so the measured reaction reflects the combined data and fell outside the two-week window ahead of the November FOMC meeting.
Across all 69 Personal Income releases since 2021 the median volatility ratio for Ethereum stands at 1.80x. This instance therefore sits within the ordinary range once the joint-release timing is taken into account. Traders watching future prints of the same event can note that proximity to policy meetings has not produced materially different median volatility in the record to date.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,024.14Close
3,296.9824h Change
272.84 (8.28%)24h High
3,330.0024h Low
2,969.0724h Volume
653,320 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
1st October, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3263.06 | 3266.84 | 3260.37 | 3261.38 | -0.05% | 0.20% | 912 ETH |
| During | 3261.39 | 3265.29 | 3254.00 | 3254.08 | -0.22% | 0.35% | 872 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3262.60 | 3267.34 | 3259.32 | 3261.38 | -0.04% | 0.25% | 3,011 ETH |
| During | 3261.39 | 3265.29 | 3244.44 | 3245.79 | -0.48% | 0.64% | 3,348 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3257.45 | 3268.63 | 3251.48 | 3261.38 | 0.12% | 0.52% | 6,052 ETH |
| During | 3261.39 | 3265.29 | 3227.46 | 3238.14 | -0.72% | 1.16% | 7,982 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3250.12 | 3268.63 | 3245.67 | 3261.38 | 0.35% | 0.70% | 8,472 ETH |
| During | 3261.39 | 3265.29 | 3223.35 | 3229.75 | -0.98% | 1.28% | 14,990 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3235.48 | 3278.40 | 3233.52 | 3261.38 | 0.79% | 1.37% | 31,965 ETH |
| During | 3261.39 | 3265.29 | 3218.00 | 3221.69 | -1.23% | 1.45% | 23,454 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3243.93 | 3278.40 | 3227.76 | 3261.38 | 0.54% | 1.54% | 51,662 ETH |
| During | 3261.39 | 3265.29 | 3218.00 | 3229.63 | -0.98% | 1.45% | 32,597 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3157.22 | 3278.40 | 3150.00 | 3261.38 | 3.19% | 3.92% | 153,106 ETH |
| During | 3261.39 | 3265.29 | 3196.46 | 3204.22 | -1.78% | 2.11% | 60,373 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3113.18 | 3278.40 | 3105.39 | 3261.38 | 4.54% | 5.28% | 212,280 ETH |
| During | 3261.39 | 3275.00 | 3176.42 | 3250.29 | -0.34% | 3.01% | 123,791 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3010.29 | 3278.40 | 3005.02 | 3261.38 | 7.70% | 8.34% | 288,992 ETH |
| During | 3261.39 | 3295.00 | 3176.42 | 3284.99 | 0.72% | 3.60% | 168,825 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3024.14 | 3119.00 | 2969.07 | 3113.18 | 2.86% | 4.81% | 158,458 ETH |
| During | 3113.18 | 3278.40 | 3105.39 | 3250.29 | 4.22% | 5.28% | 336,071 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3024.14 | 3278.40 | 2969.07 | 3261.38 | 7.27% | 9.44% | 370,738 ETH |
| During | 3261.39 | 3330.00 | 3176.42 | 3296.98 | 1.08% | 4.61% | 282,582 ETH |
