Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.14x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.41x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,520.40 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.33% higher, and an hour later 0.21% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.34% of its price, against 0.73% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 August 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.2% for July 2024, against 0.2% in June 2024. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.14x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Exceptional Move Despite Timing
Ethereum recorded an exceptional reaction to the 30 August Personal Income release, with a volatility ratio of 4.14x against the 1.80x median across 69 releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 6.41x against the typical 2.15x. The print arrived alongside PCE and core PCE figures, both at 0.2% for July.
It rose 0.33% within fifteen minutes and 0.21% after one hour, while the hourly range widened to 1.34% from 0.73% beforehand. The move exceeded twice the event's usual magnitude.
The release fell 18 days before the September FOMC decision and therefore outside the two-week window. Releases in that window have shown a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18 instances, compared with 1.77x across 51 others. This instance still surpassed the non-proximate median, indicating that proximity alone did not dictate the scale. Traders noting the event's long-run median of 1.80x can observe that individual releases can still deviate sharply even when conditions match the broader historical pattern.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,524.63Close
2,529.0024h Change
4.37 (0.17%)24h High
2,552.1724h Low
2,431.1424h Volume
337,816 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
30th August, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2520.58 | 2521.75 | 2520.08 | 2520.40 | -0.01% | 0.07% | 89 ETH |
| During | 2520.40 | 2552.17 | 2519.28 | 2533.00 | 0.50% | 1.29% | 4,332 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2516.40 | 2522.10 | 2516.39 | 2520.40 | 0.16% | 0.23% | 376 ETH |
| During | 2520.40 | 2552.17 | 2519.28 | 2526.20 | 0.23% | 1.29% | 8,224 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2520.62 | 2522.10 | 2514.14 | 2520.40 | -0.01% | 0.32% | 796 ETH |
| During | 2520.40 | 2552.17 | 2518.33 | 2526.00 | 0.22% | 1.33% | 9,287 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2518.76 | 2525.65 | 2514.14 | 2520.40 | 0.07% | 0.46% | 1,626 ETH |
| During | 2520.40 | 2552.17 | 2518.33 | 2528.60 | 0.32% | 1.33% | 10,213 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2512.43 | 2525.65 | 2510.25 | 2520.40 | 0.32% | 0.61% | 2,650 ETH |
| During | 2520.40 | 2552.17 | 2518.33 | 2524.20 | 0.15% | 1.33% | 12,150 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2514.62 | 2525.65 | 2507.31 | 2520.40 | 0.23% | 0.73% | 5,866 ETH |
| During | 2520.40 | 2552.17 | 2518.33 | 2525.69 | 0.21% | 1.33% | 15,601 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2520.03 | 2525.65 | 2507.31 | 2520.40 | 0.01% | 0.73% | 12,792 ETH |
| During | 2520.40 | 2552.17 | 2493.53 | 2508.20 | -0.49% | 2.30% | 38,932 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2523.75 | 2528.37 | 2507.31 | 2520.40 | -0.13% | 0.83% | 20,918 ETH |
| During | 2520.40 | 2552.17 | 2431.14 | 2449.45 | -2.90% | 4.74% | 126,249 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2514.79 | 2533.52 | 2507.31 | 2520.40 | 0.22% | 1.03% | 39,102 ETH |
| During | 2520.40 | 2552.17 | 2431.14 | 2527.82 | 0.29% | 4.74% | 180,127 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2524.63 | 2535.40 | 2503.80 | 2523.75 | -0.03% | 1.25% | 62,839 ETH |
| During | 2523.75 | 2552.17 | 2431.14 | 2449.45 | -3.03% | 4.74% | 147,166 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2524.63 | 2535.40 | 2503.80 | 2520.40 | -0.17% | 1.25% | 83,757 ETH |
| During | 2520.40 | 2552.17 | 2431.14 | 2529.00 | 0.34% | 4.74% | 254,059 ETH |
