ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 29th March 2024

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 March 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.4% for February 2024, against 1.4% in January 2024. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.07x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.85x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $3,536.35 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.1% higher, and an hour later 0.07% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.58% of its price, against 0.82% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.07x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Ethereum registered a quiet response to the Personal Income and Outlays release for February 2024, which printed 0.4% month-over-month against 1.4% in January. Volatility reached only 1.07x against the event's typical 1.80x since 2021, while volume stood at 0.85x against a usual 2.15x. The market barely registered the print under Clometrix thresholds. Ethereum traded at $3,536.35 on release, rising 0.1% after fifteen minutes and 0.07% after one hour, with the hourly high-to-low range at 0.58% of price compared with 0.82% beforehand.

The figures arrived together with Personal Consumption Expenditures at 0.3% and Core PCE at 0.2% for February. Clometrix records the combined reaction as quiet for this event type. The release fell 32 days before the Federal Reserve's May decision and therefore outside the two-week window.

Personal Income releases within two weeks of a policy meeting have produced median volatility of 1.86x across 18 instances since 2021, close to the 1.77x median across the remaining 51 releases. This instance's 1.07x ratio sat below even the non-proximate benchmark. The record therefore shows that proximity to decisions has not altered typical magnitude for Ethereum, yet individual releases can still fall short of the event's usual movement.

Traders watching the next Personal Income release may observe that clustered data and non-proximate timing have not guaranteed elevated volatility in the past. The measured outcome here illustrates how the market can treat even multi-indicator releases with limited price range and volume when the surprise remains contained.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

3,562.22

3,505.80

24h Change

-56.42 (-1.61%)

24h High

3,584.37

24h Low

3,445.91

24h Volume

324,108 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

29th March, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	3540.99	3541.00	3535.62	3536.35	-0.13%	0.15%	561 ETH
During	3536.35	3538.93	3536.01	3538.80	0.07%	0.08%	176 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	3545.86	3546.26	3535.62	3536.35	-0.27%	0.30%	1,029 ETH
During	3536.35	3547.00	3536.01	3544.82	0.24%	0.31%	866 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	3543.52	3550.13	3535.62	3536.35	-0.20%	0.41%	1,816 ETH
During	3536.35	3547.00	3536.01	3542.24	0.17%	0.31%	1,395 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	3542.37	3550.13	3533.80	3536.35	-0.17%	0.46%	3,976 ETH
During	3536.35	3547.00	3535.90	3539.96	0.10%	0.31%	2,042 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	3549.86	3556.80	3533.80	3536.35	-0.38%	0.65%	6,895 ETH
During	3536.35	3548.40	3535.90	3539.78	0.10%	0.35%	4,356 ETH

1 Hour
Before	3557.92	3562.71	3533.80	3536.35	-0.61%	0.81%	12,555 ETH
During	3536.35	3548.40	3527.99	3538.70	0.07%	0.58%	9,294 ETH

2 Hours
Before	3541.17	3562.71	3531.74	3536.35	-0.14%	0.87%	23,343 ETH
During	3536.35	3558.00	3527.99	3552.00	0.44%	0.84%	19,100 ETH

4 Hours
Before	3530.78	3562.71	3521.26	3536.35	0.16%	1.16%	43,487 ETH
During	3536.35	3558.00	3481.14	3492.43	-1.26%	2.16%	65,396 ETH

6 Hours
Before	3562.96	3576.27	3512.85	3536.35	-0.75%	1.77%	93,995 ETH
During	3536.35	3558.00	3445.91	3488.82	-1.36%	3.15%	110,994 ETH

8 Hours
Before	3562.22	3584.37	3512.85	3530.79	-0.89%	2.00%	103,514 ETH
During	3530.78	3562.71	3481.14	3492.43	-1.10%	2.29%	108,883 ETH

12 Hours
Before	3562.22	3584.37	3512.85	3536.35	-0.73%	2.00%	147,001 ETH
During	3536.35	3558.00	3445.91	3505.80	-0.87%	3.15%	177,107 ETH