Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 April 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.5% for March 2022, against 0.7% in February 2022. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.46x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.40x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,868.93 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.17% higher, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.42% of its price, against 1.34% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 4 May rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.46x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
This Personal Income release coincided with a quiet reaction in Ethereum. Volatility reached 1.46x against the 1.80x typical for the event since 2021, while volume came in at 1.40x versus the usual 2.15x. The market barely registered the print. The figures arrived alongside the PCE and Core PCE releases for March.
Ethereum stood at $2,868.93 when the data appeared. It advanced 0.17 percent in the first fifteen minutes and sat unchanged after one hour. The high-to-low range in the following hour measured 1.42 percent of price, little changed from the 1.34 percent recorded beforehand.
Pre-decision timing
The release landed five days before the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting. Releases of this type in the two weeks ahead of rate decisions have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across eighteen instances, nearly identical to the 1.77x median recorded across the other fifty-one cases since 2021. This instance fell short of even that level. Traders watching the next Personal Income print may observe that the record shows limited movement even when timing aligns with policy decisions.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,935.87Close
2,825.9224h Change
-109.95 (-3.89%)24h High
2,944.8324h Low
2,776.6324h Volume
527,026 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
29th April, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2869.10 | 2869.21 | 2867.62 | 2868.92 | -0.01% | 0.06% | 393 ETH |
| During | 2868.93 | 2868.93 | 2859.62 | 2862.02 | -0.24% | 0.32% | 1,693 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2864.99 | 2870.47 | 2861.78 | 2868.92 | 0.14% | 0.30% | 2,540 ETH |
| During | 2868.93 | 2868.93 | 2859.00 | 2865.71 | -0.11% | 0.35% | 3,698 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2860.85 | 2870.47 | 2857.12 | 2868.92 | 0.28% | 0.47% | 4,657 ETH |
| During | 2868.93 | 2868.93 | 2857.00 | 2861.81 | -0.25% | 0.42% | 4,914 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2854.85 | 2870.47 | 2853.17 | 2868.92 | 0.49% | 0.60% | 7,090 ETH |
| During | 2868.93 | 2874.97 | 2857.00 | 2873.94 | 0.17% | 0.63% | 6,728 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2843.11 | 2870.47 | 2832.07 | 2868.92 | 0.90% | 1.34% | 15,040 ETH |
| During | 2868.93 | 2874.97 | 2857.00 | 2859.46 | -0.33% | 0.63% | 11,336 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2855.26 | 2870.47 | 2832.07 | 2868.92 | 0.48% | 1.34% | 30,261 ETH |
| During | 2868.93 | 2876.15 | 2835.30 | 2868.05 | -0.03% | 1.42% | 25,561 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2879.99 | 2886.32 | 2832.07 | 2868.92 | -0.39% | 1.88% | 56,304 ETH |
| During | 2868.93 | 2886.23 | 2835.30 | 2849.60 | -0.68% | 1.76% | 65,096 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2919.98 | 2920.42 | 2832.07 | 2868.92 | -1.78% | 3.03% | 92,767 ETH |
| During | 2868.93 | 2886.23 | 2835.30 | 2851.01 | -0.63% | 1.76% | 112,383 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2920.14 | 2929.72 | 2832.07 | 2868.92 | -1.79% | 3.33% | 118,059 ETH |
| During | 2868.93 | 2886.23 | 2805.26 | 2823.47 | -1.61% | 2.81% | 177,186 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2935.87 | 2944.83 | 2904.14 | 2919.98 | -0.54% | 1.38% | 120,722 ETH |
| During | 2919.98 | 2920.42 | 2832.07 | 2851.01 | -2.42% | 3.03% | 205,151 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2935.87 | 2944.83 | 2832.07 | 2868.92 | -2.33% | 3.83% | 213,489 ETH |
| During | 2868.93 | 2886.23 | 2776.63 | 2825.92 | -1.52% | 3.80% | 313,537 ETH |
