Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 7.07x, against 3.21x for a typical Non-Farm Payrolls release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 12.04x, against a typical 4.71x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $59,166.72 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 2.19% higher, and an hour later 3.5% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.67% of its price, against 0.75% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 3 May 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The economy added 118K jobs for April 2024, according to Non-Farm Payrolls, after a gain of 246K in March 2024.
It arrived at the same moment as Non-Farm Private Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Non-Farm Payrolls releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 3.15x across 21, against 3.22x across 49. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 1 May rate decision. Its own ratio of 7.07x compares with 3.22x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Non-Farm Payrolls releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 3.21x.
About Non-Farm Payrolls
Nonfarm payrolls is the measure of the number of workers in the U.S. excluding farm workers and workers in a handful of other job classifications. This is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which surveys private and government entities throughout the U.S. about their payrolls. The BLS reports the nonfarm payroll numbers to the public on a monthly basis through the closely followed “Employment Situation” report.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
58,875.02Close
62,802.0024h Change
3926.98 (6.25%)24h High
63,333.0024h Low
58,811.3224h Volume
43,445 BTCUS Non-Farm Payrolls
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3rd May, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 59122.99 | 59179.25 | 59102.00 | 59166.73 | 0.07% | 0.13% | 25 BTC |
| During | 59166.72 | 59800.00 | 59112.81 | 59762.83 | 1.00% | 1.15% | 377 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 59070.00 | 59179.25 | 59055.54 | 59166.73 | 0.16% | 0.21% | 62 BTC |
| During | 59166.72 | 60105.00 | 59112.81 | 60099.00 | 1.55% | 1.65% | 1,337 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 59062.31 | 59179.25 | 59049.04 | 59166.73 | 0.18% | 0.22% | 112 BTC |
| During | 59166.72 | 60376.47 | 59112.81 | 60161.99 | 1.65% | 2.09% | 2,542 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 59126.91 | 59179.25 | 58991.99 | 59166.73 | 0.07% | 0.32% | 274 BTC |
| During | 59166.72 | 60499.00 | 59112.81 | 60461.94 | 2.14% | 2.29% | 3,408 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 59291.10 | 59291.10 | 58991.99 | 59166.73 | -0.21% | 0.50% | 571 BTC |
| During | 59166.72 | 60779.29 | 59112.81 | 60641.00 | 2.43% | 2.74% | 5,374 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 59194.08 | 59438.08 | 58991.99 | 59166.73 | -0.05% | 0.75% | 1,172 BTC |
| During | 59166.72 | 61286.21 | 59112.81 | 61239.31 | 3.38% | 3.55% | 9,380 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 59304.01 | 59438.08 | 58849.94 | 59166.73 | -0.23% | 0.99% | 2,572 BTC |
| During | 59166.72 | 62115.64 | 59112.81 | 61706.13 | 4.12% | 4.83% | 15,133 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 59331.10 | 59575.48 | 58849.94 | 59166.73 | -0.28% | 1.22% | 3,889 BTC |
| During | 59166.72 | 62115.64 | 59112.81 | 61964.00 | 4.51% | 4.83% | 19,519 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 59418.63 | 59575.48 | 58849.94 | 59166.73 | -0.43% | 1.22% | 5,914 BTC |
| During | 59166.72 | 62179.99 | 59112.81 | 61725.02 | 4.14% | 4.93% | 21,837 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 58875.02 | 59999.00 | 58811.32 | 59331.09 | 0.77% | 1.98% | 8,648 BTC |
| During | 59331.10 | 62115.64 | 58849.94 | 61964.00 | 4.25% | 5.26% | 23,408 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 58875.02 | 59999.00 | 58811.32 | 59166.73 | 0.49% | 1.98% | 12,537 BTC |
| During | 59166.72 | 63333.00 | 59112.81 | 62802.00 | 5.79% | 6.66% | 30,908 BTC |
