Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 5.29x, against 3.33x for a typical Non-Farm Payrolls release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.06x, against a typical 5.22x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,965.43 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.11% lower, and an hour later 1.08% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.21% of its price, against 1.04% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 16 December 2025 at 8:30 AM EST. The economy lost 105K jobs for October 2025, according to Non-Farm Payrolls, after a gain of 119K in September 2025.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Non-Farm Private Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Non-Farm Payrolls releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 3.21x across 21, against 3.39x across 49. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 5.29x compares with 3.39x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Non-Farm Payrolls releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 3.33x.
About Non-Farm Payrolls
Nonfarm payrolls is the measure of the number of workers in the U.S. excluding farm workers and workers in a handful of other job classifications. This is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which surveys private and government entities throughout the U.S. about their payrolls. The BLS reports the nonfarm payroll numbers to the public on a monthly basis through the closely followed “Employment Situation” report.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,949.73Close
2,961.2824h Change
11.55 (0.39%)24h High
2,981.8724h Low
2,876.0024h Volume
368,468 ETHUS Non-Farm Payrolls
Bureau of Labor Statistics
16th December, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Published with later months (US federal government shutdown). These figures were published together with later months in a single release, so the reaction shown belongs to all of them, not to this period alone. This was during the US federal government shutdown.
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2957.24 | 2976.21 | 2957.05 | 2965.43 | 0.28% | 0.64% | 2,446 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2946.39 | 2953.64 | -0.40% | 1.19% | 5,869 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2957.16 | 2976.21 | 2955.16 | 2965.43 | 0.28% | 0.71% | 4,342 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2923.07 | 2926.11 | -1.34% | 1.97% | 13,838 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2952.15 | 2976.21 | 2949.87 | 2965.43 | 0.45% | 0.89% | 6,446 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2919.41 | 2938.67 | -0.91% | 2.09% | 19,011 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2953.27 | 2976.21 | 2949.87 | 2965.43 | 0.41% | 0.89% | 8,452 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2919.41 | 2932.56 | -1.12% | 2.09% | 21,303 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2951.94 | 2976.21 | 2945.45 | 2965.43 | 0.45% | 1.03% | 12,760 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2908.79 | 2910.67 | -1.88% | 2.45% | 27,758 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2950.14 | 2976.21 | 2945.45 | 2965.43 | 0.52% | 1.03% | 17,540 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2933.37 | -1.09% | 3.19% | 50,573 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2958.28 | 2976.21 | 2945.45 | 2965.43 | 0.24% | 1.03% | 27,447 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2925.72 | -1.36% | 3.19% | 78,628 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2929.75 | 2976.21 | 2921.26 | 2965.43 | 1.20% | 1.85% | 52,165 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2931.75 | -1.15% | 3.19% | 122,324 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2931.14 | 2976.21 | 2918.21 | 2965.43 | 1.16% | 1.95% | 79,659 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2930.91 | -1.18% | 3.19% | 153,917 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2949.73 | 2966.34 | 2876.00 | 2929.76 | -0.68% | 3.05% | 117,926 ETH |
| During | 2929.75 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2931.75 | 0.07% | 3.19% | 174,490 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2949.73 | 2976.21 | 2876.00 | 2965.43 | 0.53% | 3.37% | 170,091 ETH |
| During | 2965.43 | 2981.87 | 2886.75 | 2961.28 | -0.14% | 3.19% | 198,377 ETH |
